Rational Allocation For Water Resources Based On Uncertainty Theory For Liquan City

The lack of water resources is a major problem faced by mankind in the 21st century. With the implementation of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the economic and social development in northwest China has been developing rapidly, which greatly increases the demand of water resources in northwest China, but the total amount of water resources in Northwest China Shortages, fragile ecological environment, coupled with thin economic development, resulting in irrational regional water supply structure, low effective utilization of water resources. The lack of water resources has become an important factor restricting the development of Northwest China. The rational allocation of limited water resources to promote the coordinated development of economic and social environment in northwest China is one of the main tasks of water conservancy work in Northwest China at this stage. However, there is widespread uncertainty in the water resources system. With the expansion of the population, society and economy in the region, the uncertainties are more and more characterized by the interdependence of physics,affairs and human reason, and the system itself and its environment the uncertainty intensified.The traditional configuration method often evaluates or neglects the uncertainties in the water resources system, and does not study the uncertainty deeply, so the uncertainty problem becomes weak. Based on the analysis of supply and demand balance in Liquan city planning in 2030, this paper will use the two-stage stochastic model based on supply and demand equilibrium allocation model, multi-source multi-objective optimal allocation model and system uncertainty, Water resources rational allocation, the specific research content is as follows:(1) Based on the current situation of Liquan city's physical geography, water resources,economic and social development, the quota method and trend method are used to forecast the annual water demand and water supply capacity, and three supply and demand balance analysis is carried out.(2) Based on the balance of supply and demand, the rational allocation model of water resources in Liquan city, which is based on supply and demand balance, is established. Taking into account the water quality problems in the process of water transfer and distribution, the economic benefits of Liquan city are the largest and the total The minimum water shortage is the objective function, and 75% water level is established.(3) To further consider the uncertainties in water resources system, using probability theory and interval mathematics to express the uncertainty of supply and demand system, and absorb the idea of two-stage planning, and establish a two-stage stochastic programming model.Research indicates that the two-stage stochastic programming model based on the uncertainty theory can effectively solve the uncertainties in the water resources allocation system of Liquan city. Compared with the deterministic model, the interval two-stage stochastic programming model can support the decision- The optimal solution interval to make a variety of decision-making program, while through two-stage punishment to effectively reduce the waste of water resources.