Research On Water Resources Allocation At The Intake Area In Hebei Province Of Central Line Project Of The South-To-North Water Diversion

The Intake Area in Hebei Province of Central Line Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion(the Intake Area) is located in southeastern of Hebei Province which is the center of the polity, economic and culture. There is good industrial foundation and developed traffic. Along with the development of social economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of water from bad to worse and the competition of water user become more and more intense because of the water consumption is continuously increasing and water shortage. Water shortage has become a limit solve this the prime problem of the sustainable development of the society and economic. The Intake Area has built many water conservancy projects in order to relieve the contradictions of water, the Central Line Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion benefit the Intake Area maximum. The project transfer 3.04 billion m3 water from the Danjiangkou Reservoir to the Intake Area every year at this stage, which can alleviate the pressure of the water greatly. However, also develop a reasonable allocation of water resources can we alleviate the water contradiction better between all regions and departments of the Intake Area and realize the efficient utilization and benign circulation of water resources under the condition of water shortage.According the present situation and the characteristics of the water in the Intake Area, this paper points out some problems in the development and utilization of water resources such as over-exploitation of groundwater. According to the plan and implementation of the project and local social economic condition, this paper study and select the principles of the allocation. This paper choose the NSGA-Ⅱ(Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-Ⅱ) as the algorithm to build the model of allocate the initial water rights of the water from the project to the all regions and departments of the Intake Area. Get an initial water rights allocation which is fair, efficient and realistic by the calculation of the model.The demand of the water resources in the future is very important to the allocation. In this paper, we divided the water user into six departments and analyze the history data and rules in it respectively. Considering the water-saving of each department, predict the water demand of each department in 2020 and 2030 with different method. For the prediction of domestic water demand, we predict the population, urbanization rate and the domestic water quota respectively. For the prediction of industrial water demand, we predict the industrial added value and its water consumption respectively. For prediction of agricultural water demand, we use the principal component analysis and regression analysis. For the prediction of ecological water demand, we use the rating method combined with the prediction of population and development plan and present situation. At last we organize the results of the prediction. The results show that the total water demand of the Intake Area has a little change compared with the current situation, but the changes of each department are obvious.According with the principles of generalized water resources system, analysis the elements such as calculation units and channel relationship and then get the conceptual net diagram. Establish the water resources allocation model which is appropriate for the Intake Area combined with the actual situation. Analyze the local water resources and calibrate the parameters of the model with the actual situation of water supply. The result shows that the model can reflect the water resources system very well. Then combined with the results of prediction of water demand and initial water rights allocation, analyze the situation of water supply at planning level years by setting different plans. At last we get a recommendation and then analyze and evaluate the situation of water supply of different planning level years at 2030 on the basis of the recommendation. The results show that the water from the Central Line Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion can’t fill the gap of water supply without over-exploitation of groundwater, and there is a lot of abandoned water. This paper argues that the water rights trading system should be established soon to allocate the water dynamic and reduce the abandoned water, use the water resources reasonable and efficiently.