| The economical growth theory from forms to the development,regardless of the classical growth theory and the endogenous growth theory,when researching economic growth question they mostly have avoided the natural resource as the restraint factor to the economy growth.However,along with the economical constant growth and intensifying resources consumption,the restraint function of the resources on the economy appears more and more obviously.It is heroically and the practically significance very much to bring the natural resource as a kind of essential factor into the economical growth model to consider and study the economical growth question under the resources restraint,theoretically propose countermeasure to alleviate the resources restraint.In view of the fact that the water resources acts as the most important controllability resources on social economic develops in northwest arid area.Presently,because of the climatic change and the humanity moves,water resources faces short to cause the ecosystem degeneration and the service function reducing and to slow the rate of economic development,the water resources is becoming the restrictive factor of the ecosystem and the economical development,on the basis of the evaluation on the domestic and foreign research in economy growth and the water resources correlation,This paper brings the water resources as a element of production into the traditional economical growth model,systematically inspecting the relations between the water resources and the economy grow,especially discussing the restriction intensity of the water resources on the economy and the reasonable regulation.The paper proposed the concept of Water Resources Constraint Force by revising former concept,take it as a analytical tool to establish the research bare bone of Water Resources Constraint Force.Under this frame,systematically discussing the basic theories,the variation laws and mechanisms of water resources constraint force,then take the city of Urumqi as a case,on the basis of the compatibility analysis on the monomer oasis urban development and the water resources,survey the restraint degree of water on the region development,use the quota early warning method to estimate the growth change tendency of the restraint intensity of Urumqi water resources on the economical on the short mid range.Finally based on the analysis result,proposed the effective regulative pattern and the countermeasure on Water Resources Constraint Force in arid area.Main results of this dissertation go as follows:(1)On the basis of the evaluation on the domestic and foreign research in economy growth and the water resources correlation,borrow ideas from Bao Chao to propose about the Water Resources Constraint Force concept,through the crossover analyzing of a series of the basic theories including the Theory of Economy System Entropy,the Theory of "Wooden Barrel",Theory of Constraints, Theory of Water-Ecology-Economy Multiple System,and Theory of Sustainable Development,establish the theory overhead of the water resources restraint and mechanism analyzing,construct the tool to analyze.Through the study of the birth mechanism,influencing factors,influencing mechanism,variation law of water resources constraint force and its control,it is important to realize water resources sustainable utilization and economic growth in water deficient regions.(2) The Water Resources Constraint Force is the hinderer strength to the economical system development,while water resources shortage is the physical entity and the microscopic mechanism as a result of the Water Resources Constraint Force,we use synthesis proof law of interdisciplinary science combined by the social sciences and the natural sciences,proposed the short marginal value theoretical curve of arid area water resources,using the ecosystem moisture content demand threshold valueexistencetheory,under the sustainable development idea,delimiting the section of the invertible U curve of water resources constraint, taking the coupling performance of the economy growth with the water resources use,proposing the time variation rule and the intrinsic mechanism of Water Resources Constraint in the ideal situation.(3)Based on the control principle of the Theory of coordination,the paper propose the restraint measure model of water on the economy in the certain analysis prerequisite and the different time criterion.Finally shows the influence of water on the economy is the objective existence,moreover also may be measured.And take Urumqi as the example to make the real diagnosis analysis,study the coupling relations between economies growth process and the water resources in the research area for 20 year.the speed of economy reduce1.51%every year because of the water resources loss,the water resources restraint intensity equally is 0.0151;in the short term,through the coefficient of used water structure,we has designed the restraint formula of used water structure coefficient,proposing Kuzenets curve.The water resources have being the obvious restraint function to the economical growth. (4) Establishing the appraisal target system of Water Resources Constraint Force, constructs the synthesis measure model of restraint intensity of the water resources to the economical development,after separately establishing the water resources system synthesis measure target system,the economical development system synthesis measure target system and the adjustment feedback target system synthesis measure target,we use the AHP law supported by the entropy technical to compute all levels of targets weight,use the fuzzy subordination function model to calculate subordination values of each concrete target,use the weighted mean method to separately calculate the water resources system development use composite index,the economical system synthesis development index and the adjustment feedback ability composite index,then based on this,construct the appraisal model of Water Resources Constraint Force based on the pressure-condition-response frame,then compute the restraint intensity of water resources to the economical development,and carries on restraint intensity of the water resources to the economical development to the graduation.(5) Using artificial nerve network model,research the early warning model method of restraint intensity of water resources to economical growth in arid area.In view of the fact that the artificial nerve network has the better forecast function and the non-linearity recognition capability,take the change historical data of water resources system and the regional economic system development as a foundation,use artificial nerve network to carry on the target forecast and the synthesis appraisal.(6) Proposing economy development pattern and the countermeasure in arid area based on the water resources constraint force research.The relative fix and unfluidity of natural resource essential factor,as well as the incomplete vicariousness between the work,capital essential factors,cause the economy to finally encounter the resources bottleneck to fall into stagnates even backs up.under the analysis frame of water resources constraint force,to enhance the water resources economic efficiency andtheregion health development as the pattern choice restraint condition,propose development pattern choice basic principle and the strategic mentality as well as the corresponding development pattern in northwest arid area region.
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