Analysis On The Import Demand Elasticity Of China’s Wood Pulp Import Trade

In 2020,China’s wood pulp import trade totaled $15.69 billion,ranking first in the world,accounting for 34.66% of China’s total wood forest products import trade.China’s wood pulp have a high degree of foreign import dependence,reaching 67.43% in 2020.Wood pulp’s import volume from Brazil,Canada,Indonesia and the United States have accounted for 84.20% of the total import volume,harboring a relatively large supply security risk.Uncertainties such as the trade war between China and the United States and COVID-19 epidemic have further threatened the sustainable supply of wood pulp.It is important to study the import demand elasticity of China’s wood pulp to ensure the security of wood pulp imports.In this paper,based on the analysis of China’s wood pulp import dependence and wood pulp import market concentration,we construct an import security index based on the HHI index and find that the overall risk of China’s wood pulp imports is on the rise,hovering at a high level in recent years.In the case that domestic wood pulp production is difficult to improve rapidly,careful selection of import sources and reshaping the wood pulp import market pattern are essential ways to reduce the risk of China’s wood pulp imports.Therefore,this paper uses the LA/AIDS model,selects major import sources,and measures the self-compensating price elasticity,cross-price elasticity,and expenditure price elasticity of wood pulp imports from April 2012 to December 2020 based on monthly data.Ultimately,it was found that the Chinese market is sensitive to changes in wood pulp import prices,and overall dependence on imports will continue to be maintained,but the main products of wood pulp,HS4703 and HS4702,of which cross-price elasticity of main importing countries suggests that there exists competitive relationship between the main import sources.The substitutability between the products of different source countries provides a direction for China to reduce the concentration of China’s wood pulp market through import market selection in order to maintain the safety of wood pulp imports.Based on the empirical results,countermeasure suggestions such as optimizing wood pulp import market selection,being wary of low price strategies,actively participating in wood pulp futures market trading,promoting diversification of wood pulp import sources,investing in overseas wood pulp production,developing forestry-paper integration,and improving the pulp making process are proposed.