Study On The Assessment And Response Of External Stakeholder Risk Of Project Portfolio

The highly competitive market environment drives companies to diversify and grow sustainably.With high flexibility and diversity,the project portfolio management mode is mostly used in enterprises to promote their diversified management and sustainable development.At the same time,the project portfolio occurs in a non-linear and complex interactive environment,involving stakeholders,projects and many other interacting components and elements.The process of portfolio management directly or indirectly interacts with multiple stakeholders.Different stakeholders hold different or even conflicting values.Some of their behaviors will bring risks and crises to the enterprise,thus affecting the sustainable development of the enterprise.Conflicts and behaviors related to stakeholders are the most important and unpredictable risks faced by the project.Of all stakeholder risks,due to the pursuit of objective differences and indirect management,external stakeholders have a higher probability of significant impact and loss in the process of project portfolio than internal stakeholders.Therefore,managing external stakeholder risk is an urgent and necessary step for any project portfolio.In order to carry out systematic and scientific external stakeholder risk management,this study takes external stakeholder risk of project portfolio as the research object,and measures and responds to it on the basis of considering the interaction relationship within the project portfolio.First,a Bayesian network directed acyclic graph containing project portfolio sub-network and external stakeholder risk sub-network is constructed,a conditional probability table is determined based on expert experience and similarity aggregation method,the conditional probability table is determined to calculate the risk impact value of external stakeholders,and sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify key risks and projects;Secondly,a Bayesian influence diagram is constructed based on the Bayesian network model to evaluate the expected utility values of different combinations of response strategies are evaluated,a optimization model of risk response strategy selection that satisfies the maximization of stakeholder satisfaction and minimization of strategy cost is established,and the optimal combination of response strategies is selected by combining the Bayesian influence diagram and optimization model;Finally,by taking a construction project portfolio as an example,the external stakeholder risk assessment model and risk response strategy selection model of a project portfolio are validated in terms of their applicability and validity.The results of an example show that the proposed measurement and response model is applicable to this project portfolio,and the model results have guiding significance for managers.This study takes external stakeholder risk as the research object and considers stakeholder risk and satisfaction in risk identification and response,which extends the previous research on project portfolio risk from the stakeholder’s perspective;Secondly,based on the risk causality,project dependency and the interaction of response strategies,this study conducts external stakeholder risk assessment and response research,which provides a new direction for integrating the interaction within the project portfolio;Finally,this study proposes a model for assessing external stakeholder risk and a model for selecting risk response strategy in project portfolios,which is conducive to enriching the existing research on project portfolio risk measurement and response,enriches the project portfolio risk research methods,and helps managers make scientific risk response decisions.