Research On The Impact Of Urban Shrinkage On China’s Urban Economic Resilience

With the advent of the new economic normal,China’s economic growth is gradually slowing down and entering the era of high-quality development,urban development has also entered a relatively flat phase,with shrinkage becoming the "new normal" in the development process of some cities.The shrinkage of cities is accompanied by a series of changes in economic and social structures,which in turn affect the changes in the level of economic resilience of cities.This paper explores the influence mechanism of urban shrinkage on urban economic resilience,selects 250 prefecture-level and above cities in China,conducts empirical evidence on the influence of urban shrinkage on urban economic resilience,and clarifies the mediating role of urban innovation capacity,which is important for the in-depth understanding of urban shrinkage,urban innovation capacity and urban economic resilience,and provides theoretical basis for China’s cities to deal with the shrinkage problem in development.It can provide a theoretical basis for China’s cities to cope with the shrinkage problem.Firstly,we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban shrinkage,measure the level of urban shrinkage in China,classify urban shrinkage according to different degrees and different development modes,and analyze its spatial and temporal characteristics,and find that the problem of urban shrinkage in China is beginning to emerge,and urban growth is no longer the only theme under the new normal.Secondly,the urban economic toughness evaluation index system is established to measure China’s urban economic toughness,and the current situation and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of urban economic toughness are analyzed,and it is found that the level of China’s economic toughness shows a year-on-year increase.The results show that urban shrinkage has a negative impact on urban economic toughness,and the impact of urban shrinkage on urban economic toughness is heterogeneous depending on the type,degree and location of urban shrinkage,and urban innovation capacity plays a mediating role in the impact of urban shrinkage on urban economic toughness.Urban innovation capacity plays a mediating role in the impact of urban shrinkage on urban economic resilience.Finally,based on the previous analysis,the overall countermeasures to enhance urban economic resilience are given from the macro level,and specific strategies to enhance economic resilience are proposed from the micro level for adjustment-type,trend-type,and overdraft-type shrinkage cities and heavy,moderate,and light shrinkage cities,respectively.