Resilience Measurement Of China’s Grain Supply Chain And The Impact Of External Shocks

Grain supply is the lifeblood of China,the supply chain stability is an important basis of national grain security.The toughness of the construction of safe and reliable food supply chain,enhance the risk resistance ability of the grain supply chain,can effectively cope with the grain crisis,the economic crisis and other uncertainty risk.Evaluation of China’s grain supply chain resilience level,clarify the grain supply chain resilience factors,for it is of great significance to protect the safety of grain industry in China.Based on the grain supply chain in China as the research object,to evaluate the grain supply chain resilience and study their degree affected by external shocks.First of all,from the grain supply chain,supply chain security as well as supply chain collaboration in three aspects,such as analysis of current situation of the development of China’s grain supply chain,Think that China’s grain supply chain cycle exists for a long time to a good development trend;From an external supply shocks,cost-push shock and exchange rate fluctuations impact grain supply chain in China is facing three aspects: the present situation of external shocks,Think that the world’s grain exports,the international oil price and the United States,money supply and grain supply chain interaction effect.Second,the toughness is defined in physics,and economics,to supply chain fracture toughness,impact toughness and synergy resilience as a secondary index,build the food supply,The entropy weight-TOPSIS method to calculate each year from 1996 to 2020 the total grain supply chain toughness index,the index of fracture toughness,impact toughness.Results show that the level of China’s grain supply chain resilience growth on the whole,can be divided into the low level of stability,continuous growth phase and a high level of stability.Again,analysis of supply,cost and external impact factors such as the exchange rate on China’s grain supply chain total toughness,fracture toughness,impact toughness and the influence of synergy resilience.Through the impulse response and variance decomposition,found that in macro explanation variable external shocks,monetary factors supply chain resilience biggest contribution,In contrast to supply factors and cost variance contribution is small,the interpretation of grain supply chain resilience are weaker.Finally,from the fracture toughness,impact toughness and synergy resilience from three aspects,targeted to give an effective way to enhance China’s grain supply chain resilience,In order to ensure the security of our country grain provide enlightenment.