Analysis Of The Network Structure And Influencing Factors Of Goods Trade Among RCEP Economie

The RCEP framework agreement has been signed in 2020 and will come into force in 2022,and the area covered by it has become the largest free trade area in the world,which is of great significance to the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region and to China’s strategy of promoting the building of a community of destiny.The trade scale between China and RCEP economies is huge and the trade share is relatively stable.With the continuous promotion of regional economic integration,it is of great practical significance to study the pattern of goods trade network of RCEP economies.In the context of economic globalization,trade among countries interacts with each other and multiple links,and the goods trade activities among RCEP economies have formed a complex trade network.Understanding its dynamic changes and its network formation is conducive to promoting China to play a central role in the international goods trade network with RCEP as an opportunity.Starting from the current situation of goods trade among RCEP member countries,this paper constructs a network based on the bilateral goods trade data of RCEP economies from 2008 to 2020,and uses the complex network approach to make an objective and comprehensive analysis of the density,compactness and centrality of the goods trade network structure of RCEP economies.The analysis of the evolutionary characteristics of the RCEP goods trade network shows that the network shows a trend of increasing trade exchanges,decreasing isolated nodes,and gradually tightening ties,and the overall goods trade network of RCEP economies shows a "single-core" structure led by China,with China,Japan,and South Korea leading the network centrality index and playing an important "hub" role.The network centrality indexes of China,Japan and South Korea are at the top,playing an important role as "hubs",while Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar,Laos and Vietnam are at the periphery of the goods trade network and have a low participation in the network.Based on the analysis of the evolution of the RCEP goods trade network structure,a time-exponential random graph model is used to examine the effects of endogenous structural variables,node attributes and network covariates on the RCEP goods trade network.Among the endogenous structural variables,there are hierarchical and time-dependent effects,most of the trade in the network revolves around obvious "core economies",trade relations tend to emanate from higher to lower levels,the overall structure is more stable,and the trade in goods has more obvious reciprocity;among the nodal attribute variables,the size of a country’s economy and the ability to carry out trade Among the node attribute variables,the size of a country’s economy and its ability to carry out trade links are inextricably linked,and the impact of economic size on goods trade imports is significantly greater than that of exports;among the network covariates,the common border network has an important positive impact on the goods trade network,and the bordering countries are more likely to produce trade relations.Based on this,China should continue to play the role of "hub" in the trade of goods of RCEP member countries,deepen the complementary economic and trade relations with the core countries,make efforts to promote the construction of China-Japan-ROK FTA,accelerate the establishment of trade links with the peripheral countries of the trade network,and promote the construction of a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycle.