Study On The Influence Of Preferential Trade Agreement On Service Trade

This paper constructs a service trade network based on the bilateral service trade data of 220 economies in the UNCTAD database during 2010-2017,and PTA network based on the PTA data of 213 economies in the World Bank database during 2010-2017.Based on the network analysis method,the structural characteristics and evolution trend of the above networks are systematically analyzed from the three aspects of the overall structure,individual nodes and cohesive subgroups.After data matching,ERGM is used to analyze the influencing factors of the service trade network among 175 economies in the world,and the PTA binary network,PTA weighted network and PTA weighted sub-network are mainly studied.The results show that:(1)the scale of service trade network changes from rapid growth to slow growth,the internal relationship is increasingly close,and the network shows reciprocity and small-world feature.(2)The EU and Russia are centrally located in the services trade network,and most of the other economies near the center are economically developed regions.The largest growth in centrality is also concentrated in Europe,and some emerging economies(such as China and Brazil)are also growing faster.(3)The service trade network can be divided into four plates,with more member flows within the plate and great changes in plate structure.However,the third plate and the fourth plate,which are mainly composed of the United States,Russia and EU member states,are stable and located in the center.(4)The scale of PTA network changes from a fast growth to a weak growth,the network is increasingly close,but at the same time presents a trend of multilateralization and polarization.(5)Developed countries in Europe are at the center of PTA network in the world.The European Union has a large number of neighbor nodes,but the importance of its neighbor nodes in PTA network is relatively low.The fastest growth in point centrality is concentrated in the Americas and Africa.(6)PTA network can be divided into eight plates,and the member flow within the plates is not frequent.The plate structure shows the characteristics of geographical distribution and is relatively stable.The plates are loosely connected,with only a second plate on both sides of the Atlantic,composed of Mexico,Chile,Morocco and other countries,and a fourth plate,composed mainly of members of the European Union,located at the relative center.(7)If the node countries in the network have a higher GDP and a smaller population,the more likely they are to conduct service trade with each other.At the same time,freedom of trade and investment are also important factors to promote the formation of service trade relations.Finally,both the PTA binary relationship and PTA depth relationship between countries(regions)have obvious driving effects on the service trade relationship respectively,but considering the combined effects,the PTA binary network has significantly smaller effect on the service trade network than the PTA weighted network.(8)In terms of each policy area individually,it has an obvious driving effect on service trade.However,if the PTA rules between the two countries include environmental laws,subsidies,trade facilitation,customs and intellectual property rights,the possibility of service trade relationship between the two countries is obviously higher when the combined effects of various policy fields are investigated.At the same time,since 2013,the competition policy clauses in PTA rules also play an increasingly significant role in promoting the formation of service trade relations.Based on the research results of this paper,this paper gives corresponding policy suggestions: First of all,China can deepen the economic and trade cooperation with the core regions of the service trade network through multilateral and bilateral agreements,and enhance our position in the service trade network.Secondly,we should accelerate the process of opening up the service sector and enhance the level of free trade and investment in the service sector.Thirdly,we should strengthen the construction of PTA rule system from two aspects of PTA quantity and quality,so as to enhance the influence of PTA network.Finally,attention should be paid to the effect of PTA rule heterogeneity and its implementation effect should be considered comprehensively.