| The current international economic and trade environment is turbulent,China’s long-standing dependence on export-oriented economy needs to be transformed,and the main body of the domestic circulation is needed,while the existence of market segmentation has seriously hindered the economic exchanges between China’s provinces,and the drawbacks of market segmentation are gradually emerging,which hinders the smooth establishment of the "internal and external double-cycle" system.In order to open the domestic circulation,the key is to break the status quo of market segmentation.In order to find a new entry point for market segmentation research,this dissertation chooses to build a market segmentation network based on foreign export price data to reflect the market segmentation situation.Therefore,the main question of this dissertation is: What are the structural characteristics of the market segmentation network of foreign trade products? What is the trend of its evolution? What factors influence the formation of the market segmentation network of foreign trade products?Based on a comprehensive analysis and review of the literature on market segmentation,the relationship between market segmentation and foreign trade and the analysis of market relationship based on the network perspective,this dissertation firstly constructs the price volatility matrix of foreign trade products for each year based on the export price data of 19 types of foreign trade products collected from the database of National Research Network from 2010 to 2021,imitating the relative price method.The average value of the price fluctuation matrix in 2011 is used as the threshold standard for each year,according to which the market segmentation network of foreign trade products in the past 10 years is constructed.Secondly,the structural characteristics and evolutionary trends of the segmentation network of foreign trade product market are analyzed from the overall structural characteristic indicators such as network density,agglomeration and reciprocity,individual characteristic indicators such as absolute centrality and intermediary centrality,and community analysis indicators such as modularity.Finally,this dissertation uses the exponential random graph model(ERGM)to study in depth the effect of economic development level,population size,urbanization rate and common geographical boundary of each province on the foreign trade product market segmentation network,and to estimate the ERGM model on the foreign trade product market segmentation network to test the fitting effect of the model.The following conclusions are drawn from this study: first,the degree of interprovincial market integration is enhanced,while the market segmentation network of foreign trade products shows the characteristics of grouping;second,it is found that while the degree of market integration of most provinces is enhanced,the control of some provinces over other provinces is substantially increased;third,the market segmentation network tends to be decomposed,and market integration is the development trend of trade relations among provinces;fourth,the phenomenon of "beggar-thy-neighbor" does not exist among provinces,and it is easier to establish integrated markets among provinces with similar population size or urbanization rate,and provinces with higher level of economic development or population size are more inclined to take the initiative to integrate with other provinces.Finally,the policy recommendations of this dissertation are presented: First,the macro-control role of the central government should be strengthened,the interconnection of infrastructure between provinces should be improved,and local regulations should be effectively articulated.Second,the development of regional economic integration should be promoted.Third,a negative list of direct market interventions by local governments should be formulated.Fourth,to drive new dynamics of the digital economy and stimulate the scale of domestic demand. |
PDF Full Text Request