Research On Credit Risk Contagion And Prevention Of Supply Chain Finance Base On Complex Network

With the cumulative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and finance,financial risks have significantly increased due to factors such as economic weakness and industrial shutdowns.From the micro perspective,supply chain finance plays an important role in solving the financial problems of small and medium-sized enterprises for the reason that these enterprises have weak risk tolerance and a large potential financing gap.The multisubject and multi-link characteristics of supply chain finance make risk contagion complicated,especially credit risk contagion.Therefore,it is of great significance to deeply explore the credit risk management of supply chain finance for the practice of inclusive finance and the development of the real economy.The complex networks theory is widely used in the study of the economic and financial field,which provides a new perspective for this research.Based on the theory of complex networks and the SIRS model,this dissertation analyzes the mechanism of credit risk contagion in the supply chain finance system and investigates whether risk prevention and control measures are effective.Firstly,the characteristics of the supply chain finance network in China are investigated.With the features of scale-free,structural complexity,and dynamic evolution founded,a weighted scale-free network model of supply chain finance is established.Secondly,considering the mechanism,heterogeneity,and evolution of credit risk contagion,a risk contagion model is constructed based on the state of enterprise nodes,as well as channels and processes of risk contagion,also,the risk contagion threshold is calculated based on mathematical analysis.Thirdly,through simulation,we found that contagion rate,cure rate,and immune loss rate,as well as the amount and average degree of risk infection source,affect the range,duration,speed,and capacity of infection to varying degrees.Specifically,the increase in the number of risk infectious sources will shorten the duration of infection.The higher the average degree of infection source,the shorter the duration of infection and the faster the speed of infection.Parameter optimization can significantly weaken the infection in the network.The infection rate has a positive effect on the range,speed,and capacity of infection,while the cure rate has a negative effect on the above indexes.The immunization loss rate has a positive effect on weakening the infection.Finally,the risk prevention and control strategies in the network are analyzed.It was found that increasing the immunization rate and external assistance efforts could effectively control the risk.In addition,taking risk control measures before the peak time is beneficial to curb risk contagion.