The Contagion Mechanism And Measurement Of Supply Chain Finance Credit Risk

With the development of supply chain management and financial business,supply chain finance business arises in order to solve the problem of financing of small and medium-sized enterprises.Compared with the traditional financing mode,the innovation of supply chain finance is based on the credit of the core enterprises in the supply chain,and the upstream and downstream enterprises and core enterprises are as a whole to credit.Under this background,the characteristics of multi-agent and multi-links of supply chain finance decide that the credit risk of supply chain finance will be transmitted to the enterprises associated with its financial businesses in the form of infection,which will affect the development of supply chain finance business and the normal operation of the entire supply chain.Therefore,it is very important to study the contagion of the financial credit risk in the supply chain.So,on the basis of analyzing the mechanism of the contagion of the supply chain finance credit risk,this paper studies the measurement of credit risk contagion in supply chain finance based on strength model and the measurement of credit risk contagion in supply chain finance based on small world network.First of all,in the supply chain finance,where the manufacturer is the core enterprise,the distributor is the small and medium-sized enterprise,and the stock pledge is used,and from the perspective of the core enterprise,with the aid of the strength model,the default intensities and the probability of credit risk of the core enterprise are measured in three cases.It is found that: the credit risk contagion of small and medium-sized enterprises will not only increase the probability of the credit risk of the core enterprises,but the greater the intensity of the financial business association between the two enterprises,the greater the probability of the credit risk outbreak of the core enterprises;when the intensity of business correlation between credit risk source and core business is greater than that of the source itself,the probability of the credit risk outbreak of the core enterprises under the multiple credit risk sources is greater than the single source of the credit risk.Secondly,from the perspective of the supply chain finance network,the credit risk contagion model of the supply chain finance network is established by using the small world network and the SIR infectious disease model,and the degree of credit risk contagion in supply chain financial network is measured.Through the numerical simulation,it is found that the scale of the supply chain financial network,the number of the core enterprises and the increase of the edge weight of the supply chain finance network will accelerate the credit risk transmission.The increase of the scale of the supply chain finance network and the decrease of the edge weight will help to reduce the spread of the credit risk and the average risk enterprise density,while the number of the core enterprise enterprises has little influence on the two,and even if the edge weight of the supply chain financial network is the maximum,the spread of credit risk and the average risk enterprise density are still at a lower level.the rate of the credit risk contagion in the supply chain finance network increases rapidly to the peak,and the rapid decline,and eventually maintain a steady state;the greater the contagious threshold of the credit risk of the supply chain finance network,the more effective it can prevent the risk of infection.