Research On Influencing Factors Of Credit Risk Diffusion In Supply Chain Finance From The Perspective Of Complex Network Theory

Supply chain finance is an effective means to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs.While providing financial support to SMEs,it can also expand the business scale of banks and increase the income of core enterprises.At the same time,the risks faced by banks can be reduced by the participation of third party logistics enterprises,and the win-win situation can be realized.However,because of the complexity of supply chain finance,risk management plays a very important role.Credit risk is the most important risk in supply chain financial risk.Credit risk is the key risk of supply chain finance.This paper takes credit risk of supply chain finance as the research object,under the angle of complex network,combines the network characteristic of supply chain finance,constructs BA scale-free virtual supply chain financial network.Under this kind of network environment,the SIS epidemic model is used as the basis for the credit risk diffusion model because the diffusion process of supply chain finance credit risk is similar to that of virus infection.Through systematic dynamic analysis of credit risk diffusion process,four key influencing factors,such as general financing ratio,cure time,network structure and network scale,are obtained.Using the method of simulation to simulate the process of credit risk diffusion,the influencing factors are assigned,and the impact of credit default events on enterprises is greater than the risk threshold of enterprises as the condition of infection.Under this mechanism,the simulation results verify the effects of the above key factors on the critical value of credit risk propagation probability,the density of infected nodes in steady state and the diffusion speed of credit risk.On this basis,the diffusion strategy of credit risk was changed.On the one hand,the influence of the node degree of initial infection node on the infection density at steady state was examined.On the other hand,the influence of different cure strategies on the infection density at steady state was investigated.The original research results have been improved.Finally,an example of a specific supply chain financial network with a core enterprise is given.The simulation results basically accord with the characteristics of the general supply chain finance network.At the same time,it also reflects the instability of credit risk diffusion under this network structure.The real supply chain financial network has a large number of nodes and complex network structure,so it is difficult to exhaust the real network information.In this paper,the theory analysis and simulation method are combined,the real network is projected into the model,the key information is extracted,and the process of credit risk diffusion is simulated.It provides a new research perspective for credit risk diffusion of supply chain financial network.