Research On The Impact Of Housing Price Fluctuations On Residents’ Consumption In The Central And Western Regions Under The Housing Credit Constraints

Since the implementation of housing system reform in 1998,my country’s real estate industry has developed rapidly and has gradually become an important driving force for national economic growth.However,with the continuous development of China’s real estate industry,housing prices continue to rise and have become beyond the affordability of most households,thereby inhibiting the consumption level of residents.Especially in the less developed central and western regions,the contradiction between rising house prices and insufficient consumption is particularly prominent.Since 2005,the government has continuously introduced property credit policies to regulate the real estate market in order to alleviate the livelihood problems brought about by the excessive rise in house prices,but the results have been unsatisfactory.Therefore,it is important to clarify the role of house price fluctuations under housing credit constraints on the consumption of residents in urban central and western regions,not only for the healthy development of the real estate industry,but also for improving the living standards of residents.This paper firstly reviews the traditional consumption theory and the transmission mechanism of house price fluctuation affecting consumption,and on this basis,introduces the housing credit constraint variable to construct the consumption Euler equation and deepen the theoretical analysis.Secondly,based on the social and economic data from the central and western regions from 2005 to 2020,the evolution trends of housing price fluctuations,residents’ consumption and housing credit constraint are analyzed to provide a realistic basis for the study.Then,a threshold panel model is constructed using housing credit constraints as the threshold variable to analyze the impact of house price fluctuations on urban residents’ consumption in the central and western regions.The results show that(1)There is a clustering of low income,low consumption and high housing prices in the central and western regions.(2)The fluctuation of house prices has a crowding-out effect and a wealth effect on urban residents’ consumption in the central and western regions,and the housing credit constraint plays the role of a single threshold.With the continuous relaxation of the housing credit constraints,the wealth effect of rising housing prices on consumption is enhanced and the crowding-out effect is weakened.Specifically,when the housing credit constraints exceed the threshold,the impact of rising housing prices on urban residents’ consumption in the central region changes from the crowding-out effect to the wealth effect,while the western region still has the crowding-out effect,only that the crowding-out effect decreases and is not significant compared with the first stage.(3)Housing price fluctuations and housing credit constraints are the combined causes of urban residents’ consumption in central and western regions,but not the main causes of low consumption rate;unaffordable high housing prices and home ownership linked to education resources are the causes of low consumption rate in central and western regions.Based on the research findings of this article,the following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)improving the housing market;(2)raising residents’ income and improving the social security system;(3)promote the establishment of a real estate financial market.