Analysis Of The Impact Of House Price Fluctuations On The Consumption Of Urban Residents In Anhui Province

Since the reform and opening up in 1978,China has gradually reformed the economic system,land and urban household registration system,and the level of urbanization is also advancing.In 1998,housing reform was carried out in China,and a new housing system was set up in China.Consumption,as one of the three carriages that drive the development of economy,is an important power to promote the development of national economy.Therefore,in the context of urbanization,the study of the impact of housing prices on urban residents' consumption is of economic significance for ensuring stable economic development.At present,there are many literatures on this aspect in China,but most of them focus on the nationwide data.From this point of view,this paper chooses Anhui province for empirical analysis.First of all,the relevant theories of residents' consumption and the influence mechanism of the fluctuation of housing prices on consumption are sorted out.Then the data of Anhui's real estate investment and urban residents' income and expenditure are collected and analyzed.Next,we select the provincial data of Anhui province and panel data of Anhui province for empirical analysis.In the first part of the empirical analysis,provincial data from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2017 was selected as co integration test,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition.In order to further study the consumption situation of residents in different housing price growth rates,we do the second part of the empirical analysis.Panel data from 2006 to 2016 was selected as to establish threshold panel model,taking the growth rate of house price as a threshold value,with the increase rate of income and the ratio of loan balance(taking into account the impact of liquidity risk on consumption,so the loan balance of the credit factors was selected).The threshold is the explanatory variable that is affected by threshold.The consumption growth rate is the explanatory variable,and the situation of residents consumption under different threshold values is studied.The experimental results show that: first,there is a cointegration relationship between the variables in the long run,and the house price has a promoting effect on the consumption,that is,the wealth effect of house prices is greater than the crowding out effect,and the disposable income also has a positive effect on consumption.Second,in the next 10 periods,the impact of per capita disposable income on consumption is positive,and the impact amplitude is obviously greater than the impact of house prices on consumption,and the contribution degree of the impact on consumption is far more than the contribution rate of house prices,indicating that disposable income is an important factor affecting the consumption situation of residents.Third,with the growth rate of housing price as threshold,there are three threshold values,and all tests show that the model is effective.The empirical results show that the influence coefficient of income growth rate on consumption growth rate is 1.141,1.785,1.293,0.803,respectively,within different threshold values.The degree of impact will increase first and then decrease gradually,showing a reverse U shape.Fourth.From the liquidity constraints of the residents,the impact coefficient of the loan ratio growth rate on the consumption growth rate is 0.048,0.016,0.027 and-0.008 respectively,indicating that the degree of resident consumption is significantly less affected by the liquidity risk in the range of different housing prices than the impact of the available income,indicating that the disposable income is An important factor affecting the consumption of residents.From the influence coefficient,it can be seen that when the price growth rate of the threshold variable exceeds the last threshold value,the impact of the loan balance on the consumption is opposite.It shows that the high rate of high house price increases the liquidity risk of the residents,and the consumption is restrained by the credit factors at this time.