Research On The Impact Of Commercial Housing Price On Consumption Of Urban Residents In China

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,China’s real estate industry has entered the market gradually,in which housing price keeps rising,real estate has been a crucial part in residents’ wealth.However,house is a kind of capital assets,which have the property of investment,real estate industry has absorbed a large body of speculative funds,causing the irrational rise of housing price at one time.More and more higher price of housing overwhelms the endurance of people,hence problem of high housing price has been the most current topic of concern in our society,which restricts the consumption severely.Firstly,this paper analyses the relationship between the housing price and consumption in theory,indicating that higher housing price can propel consumption by wealth effects.However,excessively fast growth of housing price enhances the living costs at the same time,which reduces the consumption level.Secondly,this paper testifies the correlation,co-integration and causality between resident consumption and housing price by domestic time series data.Then we use panel data of 292 prefecture level cities to probe the influence which housing price impacts on consumption by empirical comparison result based on different level of cities,finding that first-tier cities’ housing price significantly inhibits the consumption,while the influence of the second-tier cities is not obvious,the third-tier and fourth-tier cities’housing price promotes consumption obviously,and the housing price of the third-tier cities promotes consumption stronger than the fourth-tier cities evidently.And then,we try to testify the elements which restrict the impact of the housing price on consumption by threshold regression model,the results indicate that higher level of the social security of cites and better development of the financial market enhance the positive influence the housing price impact on the consumption,while the enlargement of income inequality has the inverse effect.Finally,this paper proposes some policy-making suggestions in the several aspects,among which are reform of property tax,discriminated regulations of real estate market,improvement of second-hand housing market,reinforcement of affordable housing construction and advocacy of new consumptive ideas.