Research On Early Warning Of Financial Risks In The Real Estate Industry Under The Background Of The Epidemi

On April 29,2022,General Secretary Xi pointed out at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China that "we should adhere to the positioning that houses are for living and not for speculation,support localities to improve their real estate policies from local realities,and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." However,since the outbreak of the New Crown Pneumonia epidemic in 2020,China’s real estate sector has been severely impacted.Restrictions on the movement of people under the epidemic have caused stagnation in real estate development and construction and delays in resumption of construction;residents’ income has decreased and their ability to purchase homes has declined,while risk expectations have strengthened and awareness of preventive savings has increased,resulting in curbed housing demand;the closure of various sales offices and agency stores has led to a precipitous drop in turnover and a significant reduction in revenue;and real estate companies are facing huge financial risks and uncertainties.Although the current situation of the epidemic in China is gradually stabilizing,the impact of the epidemic on various industries will persist for a long time.Under the new situation,real estate enterprises must strengthen their own financial risk prevention awareness and improve their financial risk prevention ability to cope with the huge impact brought by similar "black swan" events.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the financial risks of the real estate industry under the epidemic and to provide early warnings for them.This thesis firstly reviews the literature related to the impact of COVID-19 on the economy,financial risk warning and enterprise response strategies under public emergencies,and takes enterprise early warning management theory,new order financing theory,risk management theory,signal transmission theory and BP neural network theory as the theoretical basis of this thesis.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of the real estate industry under the epidemic,and then analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate industry from the aspects of development and sales,and analyzes the financial risk performance and causes of the real estate industry under the epidemic.Then,taking 96 listed real estate companies as research samples,BP neural network was used to build the financial risk warning model under the background of the epidemic.A total of 29 indicators were selected from eight aspects: cash flow,solvency,operation ability,profitability,development ability,corporate social responsibility under the epidemic,corporate governance and management risk awareness of the epidemic,and the 29 indicators were screened to 11 by factor analysis method for the construction of the early warning model.In the process of model construction,96 sample companies were divided into two groups: 73 training companies and 23 inspection companies.The training group was used to train and learn the BP neural network model,and the test group was used to check the accuracy of the model.Finally,this thesis analyzes the case of Risesun development enterprises,inputs various early-warning indicators into the model for simulation,analyzes the early-warning results of Risesun development financial risk according to each early-warning indicator,and proposes targeted risk prevention strategies,which also provides reference and reference for the financial risk prevention of real estate enterprises in similar sudden public events.The research findings are as follows: First,through the training and testing of the sample data,the correct rate of model detection is 91.3%,indicating that the early warning model established in this thesis has a high prediction accuracy,and can be used as a financial risk early warning tool for Chinese housing enterprises under the epidemic situation.Second,Risesun Development Enterprise has hidden financial risks such as weak awareness of the risk of the epidemic,insufficient cash flow,serious debt crisis,and sharp reduction of net profit.Third,enterprises should,on the basis of making good use of the government-assisted rescue policies during the epidemic period,reduce their financial risks and avoid financial crisis by enhancing the awareness of the management level of epidemic risk prevention,improving financing channels,reducing debt and carrying out digital marketing.