Studys On The Early-Warning Model Applied To Analysis Of The Risk In Real Estate

The real estate now is playing more and more important role in Chinese economics with its development.However there are so many problems in this area , e.g , the difference between supply and demand in some regions ,disequilibrium of markets,the higher of price and empty quantity.Because,the real estate is provided with the cyclic behavior.And this behavior maintains close ties withnational macroeconomic cyclic behavior.The acute cycle fluctuations Super-cooling and overheating of real estate market will do harm to our economy.For the reasons above, it's necessary to set up the early-warning system in the real estate.From the respect of loan management in bank,which favors the reduction of the risk in the real estate loan business,and the healthy development of the real estate.Therefore,it is very important to study on the early-warning system in the real estate.This paper is based on the macro-economics early-warning theory.After summarizing the existing early-warning theory in the world and comparing with several usually used early-warning models,I choose BP-Artificial Neural Network which is used widely in the field of economics early-warning as the real estate early-warning model.During the choice of early-warning indexes,after analyzing the factors which affect the cycle undulation in the real estate,I find five kinds of indexes related with the development of the real estate in order to establish the early-warning indexes in the real estate early-warning model.Then I calculate the synthesized index with the factor analytical method and the information entropy method which is used for the early-warning estimation in each year.And the clustering analyse is used to validate the veracity of the early-warning estimation.Above all,training the BP-Artificial Neural Network which use the index of early-warning model in each year as the imported variable and use the early-warning estimation in each year as outputed variable.When the error of the BP-Artificial Neural Network achieve the goal,it can be used to estimate the alarm of the risk in the real estate and forecast the development of the real estate.In the last chapter of this paper,there is a demonstrated research of the real estate in...