| As a double-edged sword,economic globalization drives the rapid development of global economy on the one hand,and increases the complexity and breadth of economic environment on the other.Market competition has entered a new stage driven by it,and e-commerce has also developed rapidly.Products and services as a direct reflection of enterprise competitiveness,facing higher standards and challenges.The current business model centering on customers requires the order response ability of supply chain to be more flexible and outstanding.As the service front of supply chain system to meet customer requirements,demand order performance delivery ability has become a key factor to directly reflect the competitiveness of enterprises.However,due to the increasing coverage,length,breadth and complexity of the supply chain,the enterprise’s anti-risk ability is also decreasing,and the enterprise’s order fulfillment and delivery ability is also facing great uncertainty.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the supply chain reliability oriented to order fulfillment and delivery ability,help identify the weak links in the supply chain system,improve the enterprise’s anti-risk ability and enhance customer satisfaction.At present,there is a lack of comprehensive and in-depth research on the supply chain reliability of order fulfillment delivery capability.Order fulfillment delivery capability is only taken as an indicator to evaluate the reliability of member enterprises,and it is not taken as a variable for in-depth research.Moreover,it is difficult to apply the reliability engineering theory to the supply chain system to realize the quantitative analysis of the supply chain system because it is difficult to uniformly evaluate the reliability indicators of member enterprises.In view of this,this paper takes the delivery ability of order fulfillment as the entry point,and conducts relevant reliability analysis and research on supply chain under two different states:dimorphism and polymorphism.On the one hand,this paper puts forward a reliability analysis method of two-state supply chain system,aiming at customers’ high requirements on the reliability of order performance delivery,which does not allow partial performance and only includes the "good" state of perfect performance demand orders and the "fault" state of completely unable to perform demand orders.Firstly,the order fulfillment and delivery ability is taken as the basis for evaluating the reliability of member enterprises,and the existing reliability engineering theory is combined with the four-level supply chain system.The reliability evaluation index is selected according to the operation process of the supply chain,and the relevant reliability evaluation measurement model is established to evaluate the reliability of member enterprises in the four-level supply chain system.Secondly,based on the supply and demand relationship between member enterprises,the relevant reliability block diagram is drawn to further evaluate the reliability of the two-state supply chain system.The binary decision diagram method is introduced again,and the Boolean expression is obtained by combining with the logical relation of reliability block diagram.The importance measurement method in reliability engineering theory is used to analyze and measure the importance of each member enterprise in the supply chain system,and the importance degree of member enterprises is sorted to identify the weak links in the supply chain system.Supply chain managers should focus on which member enterprises and how to improve the reliability of multi-level supply chain system to provide a decision basis.Finally,the validity and feasibility of the proposed two-state supply chain reliability analysis method are verified and analyzed by an example.The results show that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the reliability level of each member enterprise and the whole supply chain system.Based on the results,the importance measurement is carried out,and the member enterprises that should be paid attention to are given.The importance ranking of all member enterprises is conducted,which provides a basis for decision makers to avoid risks and improve the reliability of the supply chain system.On the other hand,this paper proposes a reliability analysis method of multi-state supply chain system in which the member enterprises have multiple order fulfillment and delivery states for the customer to allow partial fulfillment of the order.Firstly,order fulfillment capacity is used as the performance level of supply chain system to describe the member enterprises and systems of polymorphic supply chain,and the reliability evaluation index of the system is given.Secondly,Markov process is used to build the reliability model of member enterprises in multistate supply chain system,and the state transition process of order fulfillment and delivery capability is analyzed.The reliability of member enterprises in multistate supply chain system is quantitatively evaluated by numerical calculation method.Combined with the performance structure function between the multimodal supply chain system and member enterprises,the reliability evaluation of the multimodal supply chain system is realized.The reliability of member enterprises and system under different order fulfillment and delivery capacity is further discussed.Thirdly,based on the order fulfillment ability,the measurement models of probability importance,FV importance,RW importance and AW importance are constructed to comprehensively discuss the importance of member enterprises under different order fulfillment ability.Based on the analysis results,decision-makers can intuitively understand the importance of member enterprises under different order fulfillment levels.In order to select relatively important member enterprises according to the actual order demand,and identify the member enterprises that can improve the reliability of the supply chain system more quickly and effectively by focusing on upgrading.Finally,the validity and feasibility of the proposed multistate supply chain reliability analysis method are verified and analyzed by an example.The results show that the proposed multi-state supply chain reliability analysis method can effectively evaluate the reliability of each member enterprise and the whole supply chain system under the dynamic change of order fulfillment and delivery capability.According to the constructed importance measurement model based on the delivery ability of order fulfillment,the importance ranking of member enterprises is realized.Guide decision makers to make the optimal choice to improve the reliability of supply chain system under the dynamic change of order fulfillment and delivery ability of member enterprises,so as to improve the flexibility and anti-risk ability of supply chain. |
