Study On The Risk Identification And Blocking Of Farmers Returning To Poverty In Western China

China has completely eliminated absolute poverty,and its top priority in the new era is to consolidate the achievements made in poverty alleviation and prevent the return to poverty.In the western region of China,under the influence of natural conditions and geographical location,farmers lack of endogenous motivation and increasing vulnerability.Due to the long-term objective existence of poverty and its universal and dynamic characteristics,some rural population face a high risk of returning to poverty,and there is an unstable situation of "poverty-poverty alleviation-return to poverty".In order to realize the limited connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization,meet the needs of high-quality development in the new era,accurately identify the risk of farmers returning to poverty in western China,and build a long-term blocking mechanism of returning to poverty,it is of great significance to the stable poverty alleviation of farmers in western China and the sustainable realization of farmers’ livelihood.This paper starts with the natural characteristics and the general situation of poverty management in western China,and on the basis of explaining the related theories of vulnerability,constructs the index evaluation system of "exposure-sensitivity and adaptability" to measure the vulnerability of farmers in western China.Using entropy weight method and farmers vulnerability index model,comprehensive evaluation of the western region farmers vulnerability index,and identify the dimensions and I farmers Chinese risk index,using Logistic model from the perspective of farmers heterogeneity analysis the risk of farmers Chinese factors,explain its influence mechanism and on the basis of put forward the western region farmers Chinese risk of long-term blocking strategy.The results show that:(1)the overall vulnerability level of farmers in western China gradually decreased,and the number of farmers with high vulnerability decreased,but with the improvement of the living standards of farmers in western China,the relative vulnerability exposure is obvious.From all dimensions,the exposure of farmers in western China decreased year by year,the sensitivity of farmers increased first and then decreased,and the adaptability of farmers increased year by year.(2)The long-term evolution trend of the risk index of farmers in western region is the same,and the risk of returning to poverty in western region exists for a long time.The potential pressure has the greatest impact.Economic sensitivity is the main factor for farmers to fall into poverty.The lack of financial capital makes farmers fall into the risk of returning to poverty.(3)There are many factors affecting the risk of farmers returning to poverty in western China.Ability and habit factors and social connection factors have a good inhibitory effect on the overall return of farmers in western China,and policy and institutional factors,resource and environmental factors and unexpected risk factors all have a significant impact on the overall farmers.It can be seen that the sustainability of the carrier of return to poverty is the key to determine whether farmers return to poverty.According to the conclusion,the paper obtains the following enlightenment:(1)expand the monitoring scope of the risk objects of returning to poverty,and include the non-poor households and stable poor households with high vulnerability into the monitoring and early warning scope of preventing the return to poverty.(2)Establish the mechanism of blocking poverty according to households,and increase the organic connection between macro policies and micro subjects.(3)Realize the rational construction of rural governance structure and continuously lead the poverty alleviation to rural revitalization.