| At present,China is in a new historical period of transformation of old and new drivers of economic growth and coordinated regional development.Urban agglomeration,with its scale advantage,has become a high-level spatial organization with the capacity to carry China’s economic development and regional coordination in the new period.The Urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan is the transition zone between the eastern coastal region and the central and western regions,and the combination of the Yangtze River Open economic Belt and the coastal open economic belt,which has a unique location advantage to enhance the potential of domestic demand in the domestic market.However,there are still some problems in the internal transportation infrastructure of the urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan,such as poor road network density,weak ability to drive economic development and insufficient radiation effect,and the radiation ability and competition level of urban agglomeration economy mainly depend on the development level of modern industrial system.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the coupling development level of transportation and modern industrial system in the urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.Based on system theory and new economic geography theory,this paper constructs the bidirectional coupling mechanism of urban agglomeration transportation integration and modern industrial system from three aspects of market scope,factor allocation and productivity level,as well as the multiple characteristics of modern industrial system.A variety of modern econometric methods such as coupling coordination degree model,grey correlation degree analysis method and panel VAR are comprehensively used to empirically test the coupling development relationship between transportation integration and modern industrial system in the urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.The theoretical and empirical conclusions of this paper mainly include the following aspects :(1)there is a two-way interaction mechanism between the transportation integration and the development of modern industrial system in the changzhou-zhuzhou-xiangtan urban agglomeration,rather than a one-way influence path.The empirical results show that there is a Granger causality relationship between the transportation integration and the development of modern industrial system in the Urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.There is a significant self-promoting effect between the transportation integration and the development of modern industrial system,and there is a long-term and stable interaction mechanism between the two systems.(2)The transportation integration and modern industrial system development of the Urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan are in a situation of coupling and coordinated development.The empirical results show that the overall growth rate of coupling coordination between transportation integration and modern industrial system development in the Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is 34%,and the average annual growth rate is 2.75%.In terms of time dimension,the growth rate of coupling coordination shows an inverted u-shaped trend,that is,the coupling coordination develops slowly from 2008 to 2012,and develops rapidly from 2013 to 2015.Growth slowed after 2015.(3)By calculating and analyzing the time series evolution of the coupling coordination between transportation integration and modern industrial system development of cities in the Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration,it is found that the coupling coordination of Changsha remains in the lead,and the gap between Changsha and other cities is gradually widening.Yiyang ranks last in coupling coordination at present,but its growth rate is much higher than other cities,and there is much room for improvement.There is little difference in the coupling coordination of other cities,and all of them show an upward trend.(4)The influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree between the transportation integration and the development of modern industrial system in the Urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan were analyzed.The results show that traffic and industry are two equally important indexes in the coupling system.The modernization of service industry and the level of industry promote the coupling development of the two systems greatly.Transportation integration contributes to the improvement of coupling coordination degree,of which transportation scale is the most correlated indicator,followed by public transportation infrastructure investment,indicating that increasing transportation integration investment can improve the mobility efficiency of labor and production factors between and within cities of the Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.It can significantly improve the coupling coordination degree of transportation integration and modern industrial system development in the urban agglomeration around Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan. |
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