China's Real Estate Market Risk Measure Study

Real estate is one of the most important industries of the country. It is closely boned up to people's daily life and work, which is boundless beneficence in driving economy and activating consumption. It just likes a rain glass in our national economy. Currently, our national real estate market has appeared high risk incipient tendency. And it has become the key field of the macro-economic control. Thus taking groping research to our national real estate market has great Significance to both in real estate market and the whole macro economy.The article defined real estate risk according to the thesis of risk firstly. And analyze the outer manifestations and inner mechanism aimed characteristics of real estate. Then the article established the measurement system. The measurement system included three aspects as follows: the first aspect was from the real estate bubble point of view, building other's mature output, using the four indictors that the ratio of investment in the real estate to investment in fixed asset, the ratio of real estate loan to whole sources of funds, the ratio of rate of housing price growth to rate of GDP growth, and the ratio of housing price to income. And drew the conclusion that though our national real estate market had not appeared bubble, it had appeared the tendency of bubble. It need attach importance to all departments. The second aspect was from correspondence of real estate market and macro economy point of view, using cointegration method of unstable time series. Taking real estate selling price and GDP, income, rate indictors analyze the real estate risk of our country. And drew the conclusion that at present the price changes of our real estate market fitted the high-speed economy growth's demand. However, the real estate prices of some cities have exceeded the normal speed of economic growth; it needs to grasp the trend so as not to appear real estate risk. The third aspect was from the real estate market and finance risk point of view, according to the symbiosis of real estate risk and finance risk, using the finance data of real estate quoted company, analyzing real estate market risk adopting statistical methods of principal component analysis and discriminant analysis, and distinguish the credit level of real estate companies by the model. And the model will supply a creditable academic basis. Finally drew a total conclusion according to the three above, also put forward some macro economy control policies and suggestions as blow: to keep away and control real estate risk ,we must on the side of macro angle, the macro economy control of government was not absent. The government should reform from links as blow: perfecting finance market, reforming real estate development system, perfecting real estate product structure and do on.The innovation of the article mainly manifest that apply diversified economic thesis to analyze the factor and inner mechanism of the real estate market risk. The article built an all-around and systemic method for analyzing and evaluating real estate risk via real estate bubble, the correspondence of real estate market and macro economy, and the symbiosis of real estate risk and finance risk.