| In recent years,the rapid urbanization process has brought urban construction and development into a new era,and commercial complexes have emerged.However,with the implementation of the policy of ’ housing without speculation ’ and the continuous downturn of the real estate industry,many commercial complexes have experienced difficulties such as large construction fund gap,difficult market ’ digestion ’ and poor management after investment.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to strengthen the research on investment risk of commercial complex projects.This paper takes the F commercial complex project planned by YX Real Estate Company as the research object,uses the relevant theories of project risk management theory,analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method,and preliminarily identifies the project investment risk through field investigation method,literature review method and questionnaire survey method.The brainstorming method is used to construct an index system of 21 risk factors in four aspects: investment decision-making,planning and design,construction implementation and marketing operation.Then,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are used to comprehensively evaluate the risk factors of project investment,and the subordinate relationship of risk factors is obtained.It is determined that the whole project belongs to medium risk,among which the risk level is relatively large,including real estate regulation risk,bidding contract risk and material supply risk,while the other risk factors are medium and small risk levels.According to the results of risk assessment,the basic strategies of risk bearing,risk avoidance,risk sharing and risk reduction are put forward.It is suggested that the company should improve the investment risk management of F project in the aspects of risk awareness,risk control system,supervision mechanism and risk control talents.In order to ensure that the investment project can achieve the expected return on investment,specific risk prevention measures are put forward for the large property market regulation risk,bidding contract risk,material supply risk and small and medium risk items. |
