Research On The Influence Of Monetary Policy On Leverage Ratio Of Non-Financial Enterprises

Since the 2008 financial crisis,the macro leverage ratio of emerging market economies represented by China has been rising.How to resolve the systemic financial risks caused by the long-term high macro leverage ratio in China has become a hot spot for scholars at home and abroad.In 2021,China’s "fourteenth five year plan" put forward the overall economic goal of maintaining the macro leverage ratio of "focusing on stability and decreasing while maintaining stability".How to reduce China’s macro leverage ratio to a reasonable level has become one of the focuses of macro-control in recent years.Aiming at the overall economic goal proposed in the "14th five year plan",this paper studies the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises that have the greatest impact on China’s macro leverage ratio,and uses the relevant data of non-financial enterprises’ assets and liabilities from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2019 when China’s A-shares were listed,trying to analyze the correlation between monetary policy and the leverage ratio of China’s listed non-financial enterprises from the individual level of enterprises,It also analyzes the difference between short-term and long-term leverage ratio and the difference between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.Through the benchmark regression analysis,we can see that there is an obvious "inverted n" relationship between monetary policy and the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises,which is more significant in the short-term leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises,which means that when the monetary policy continues to tighten beyond a certain threshold,the short-term leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises will rise instead of falling.In fact,neither excessively loose nor excessively tight monetary policies can achieve the expected results,which provides strong support for China to continue to implement prudent monetary policies in the future.The most prominent marginal contribution of this paper is to study the significant difference between the leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises and the "inverted n" relationship of monetary policy in different competitive industries and enterprises with different profitability through group discussion.The "inverted n" relationship of non-state-owned enterprises with higher competitiveness and lower profitability is more obvious.The main reason for this heterogeneous differentiation is that non-state-owned enterprises in competitive industries with high and low profitability rely more on shadow banking and commercial credit for alternative financing during the period of tightening monetary policy.The increase of overall social liabilities and financing costs have jointly boosted the growth of China’s macro leverage ratio.By systematically combing the research results at home and abroad and analyzing the empirical regression results,this paper believes that the "one size fits all" monetary policy can not affect the decline of enterprise leverage ratio,and the central bank’s implementation of prudent monetary policy is more effective;Secondly,the General Administration of currency should implement more targeted monetary policy around the structural problem of short-term leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises in China;Thirdly,we should actively maintain the benign operation of the commercial credit system among Chinese enterprises,and effectively promote the healthy development of the supply chain ecology of non-state-owned enterprises,especially the non-state-owned enterprises with high competitive industries and low profitability;Finally,deleveraging must take into account China’s current economic transformation and upgrading,the emergence of China’s aging population and the severe situation of the global COVID-19,ensure that the implementation of the policy will not cause new crises to the social economy,and prevent the occurrence of systemic financial crisis through the promotion of China’s macro leverage ratio of "focusing on stability and decreasing in stability".