Research On The Influence Of Monetary Policy On Leverage Ratio Of Non-financial Enterprises In China

Since 2008 the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered the global financial crisis,our country continues to loose monetary policy and the implementation of the "four trillion" fiscal stimulus,which also causes the rapidly rising leverage of non-financial enterprises in our country.Higher leverage can bring higher capital costs and the risk of default,at the same time will increase more unstable factors for society.At the same time,the Party and the government are highly concerned about risk prevention in the financial market,and clearly put forward the requirement of "deleveraging" at their work meeting in 2015,and further pointed out that preventing financial risks is the focus of current financial work in 2017.Financial systemic risk is largely influenced by high leverage and high risk.Therefore,the study of China’s monetary policy and its impact on the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has important practical significance and practical value for reducing the systemic risk of China’s financial system and realizing structural deleveraging.This paper mainly carries on the theoretical analysis to the monetary policy theory and the transmission mechanism.Since China’s financial system is not perfect enough,and the central bank mainly adopts quantitative monetary policy as the main regulatory tool in market regulation,this paper mainly studies quantitative monetary policy,and takes the data of Non-financial enterprises listed in A-share market from2009 to 2020 as samples to build A fixed effect model.Empirical test of quantitative monetary policy on the impact of China’s non-financial enterprises,in the empirical analysis,this paper also adopts the adjustment effect,and finally carries out the robustness test.In this paper,the proxy variable of quantitative monetary policy is not the simple supply quantity of broad money M2,but its growth rate,which can be better compared by using relative value.From a financial point of view,corporate leverage ratio should be long-term debt-to-capital ratio,but its data source is difficult to obtain,so this paper adopts a simpler debt-to-asset ratio.In the research process,this paper divides enterprises into state-owned enterprises and private enterprises,and studies enterprises of different sizes and different revenue growth rate respectively.Empirical research shows that M2 growth rate has a positive correlation with corporate leverage ratio.State-owned enterprises are less sensitive to monetary policy due to their financial subsidies,social status,hidden guarantee and other factors,while private enterprises are more sensitive to monetary policy due to their own scale.Secondly,when analyzing the size of enterprises,it is found that the size of enterprises also affects the sensitivity of enterprises to quantitative monetary policy.For large enterprises,quantitative monetary policy has a lower impact on leverage ratio than small enterprises.Finally,for enterprises with different revenue growth rates,the sensitivity of quantitative monetary policy is different,and the monetary policy of enterprises with fast revenue growth rate has a more significant impact on their leverage ratio than that of enterprises with slow growth rate.