Leverage Ratio,House Prices Fluctuations And The Choice Of Monetary Policy

Since the commercialization of real estate,real estate has gradually become a pillar industry and plays a more important role in China.However,with our country’s large-scale credit expansion,the phenomenon of house price bubbles is becoming more and more serious,and the same as high leverage ratio.Nowadays,China is in an important period of economic transformation,the regulation to house prices is a long way to go.This paper is based on the domestic and foreign scholarsr’ related research on house prices.Firstly I combed the monetary transmission mechanism of real estate prices and the related theories of the financial accelerator mechanism,and concluded that the monetary transmission effect was mainly influenced by traditional monetary channels and credit channels,which confirmed that the real estate industry did exist finance accelerator effect.Secondly,considering the current situation of high leverage in China and the correlation between the leverage ratio of micro enterprises and the fluctuation of house prices,I explored the influencing factors of house prices from different angles.Finally,on the basis of the above theoretical analysis,I constructed a modified DSGE model based on the BGG model constructed by Bernanke to investigate the impact of different monetary policy impact on house prices,which was used the research method of Ansgar Rannenberg on micro enterprise leverage to introduce the leverage ratio of real estate developer into the model.The main conclusions as follows:First,the rule of money supply in monetary policy plays a regulatory role in house prices and leverage.Second,The regulation of the interest rate rules in the money supply is obviously more important than the money supply.It also shows that the regulation of the interest rate rules is more severe,but the effect on the leverage ratio of the real estate development enterprises is not very good.T hird,there is a positive correlation between house price fluctuation and the leverage ratio of real estate development enterprises,and the fluctuation of house prices will be affected by the fluctuation of leverage ratio.Fourth,from the perspective o.f enterprises,the net assets of enterprises have a great impact on leverage ratio.To sum up,money supply rules and interest rate rules in monetary policy both have a regulation influence on house prices,but the strength is different,so the effect of the central bank to match the two monetary policy rules may be better.In addition,considering the impact of the net assets of the real estate development enterprises on the leverage ratio,the proportion management of the increasing free capital of the enterprise will be beneficial to the decline of the leverage ratio of the enterprise,and then to control the price of the house.