An Research On The Calculation And Influencing Factors Of Trade Costs Between China And ASEAN Under The Background Of The "Belt And Road"

The "Belt and Road" has attracted close attention from countries around the world since it was proposed,especially ASEAN countries.As the gateway to the Maritime Silk Road,the ASEAN is the core strategic region of The "Belt and Road".With the in-depth development of trade practices between China and ASEAN,trade cost has gradually become the core factor affecting the development of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.Therefore,with the help of the historic opportunities provided by The "Belt and Road",it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to conduct in-depth research on the issue of bilateral trade costs between China and ASEAN.This paper first introduces the theory of trade cost measurement model from the theoretical level,and then sorts out the influence mechanism of China-ASEAN bilateral trade cost from four aspects including distance,income level,organizational factor and infrastructure.Secondly,when discussing the status of economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN,it mainly analyzes the overall situation of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN and the connection situation between China and ASEAN’s "Five Links" strategy under the background of The "Belt and Road".Finally,in the empirical research,this paper uses Novy’s improved trade gravity model to measure the trade cost between China and ASEAN as a whole and among the member states,and on this basis,the changes in trade costs before and after The "Belt and Road" were compared with 2013 as the node.Meanwhile,the dummy variable The "Belt and Road" is introduced into the regression model for empirical test,so as to examine the direction and degree of impact of The "Belt and Road" on trade cost between China and ASEAN.After that,a multiple regression model is constructed to empirically study the core factors that affect the bilateral trade cost between China and ASEAN.The research finds: First,the overall bilateral trade cost between China and ASEAN shows a downward trend,but there are great differences among the member states.Second,in the cooperation context of The "Belt and Road",it has played a positive role in the reduction of bilateral trade costs between China and ASEAN by continuously improving the level of connectivity under the "Five Links" strategy,but there is still potential for further reduction.Third,among the selected explanatory variables,geographic distance has a significant positive impact on the bilateral trade cost between China and ASEAN;While the difference in per capita GDP,trade openness,whether is WTO member,logistics performance and The "Belt and Road" negatively affect their bilateral trade costs.The impact of the variable of per capita GDP difference is opposite to that expected,while the two explanatory variables of whether to have the common border and whether to sign the regional trade agreement have no significant impact on the bilateral trade cost between China and ASEAN.Finally,according to the research conclusions,this paper gives corresponding policy suggestions on how to further reduce the bilateral trade cost between China and ASEAN in the cooperation context of The "Belt and Road".