Research On The Risk Assessment Of The Period Of Continued Existence Of The First Tranche Of Urban Investment Bonds Of A Company In 2020

Urban investment bonds originated from the reform of the tax-sharing system.With the introduction of the "4 trillion" economic stimulus plan,local governments are encouraged to raise construction funds through urban investment companies,then the scale of urban investment bonds has grown rapidly.As an important tool for macro-control and an invisible embodiment of local government debt,urban investment bonds have become an important tool for stabilizing growth in the context of sluggish macroeconomic growth,weak private investment,and local government debt replacement.In 2020,Yongmei’s default caused the "state-owned enterprise belief" to be completely broken,and another school of investment beliefs,"urban investment belief",also attracted widespread attention in the market.City investment bonds can make up for the company’s capital gap in the short term.With the increase in the phenomenon of Urban Investment Corporation “ borrowing new to repay the old ” and misappropriating raised funds,they are facing risks not only during the issuance period,but also during the duration of Urban Investment Bonds.During the duration of urban investment bonds,they also face corresponding risks,which eventually lead to the occurrence of debt risks.This article selects the first phase of the city investment bonds non-publicly issued by Company A in June 2020 as an example.This issue of urban investment bonds is large in scale and has a long duration.It is the only corporate bond issued by Company A.It is conducive to the risk assessment of the duration of the urban investment bonds.First,the basic situation of Company A,the issuance process of the selected urban investment bonds,the sources of debt repayment during the duration and related systems are introduced in detail.The risk in the duration of urban investment bonds comes from systemic risk and credit risk.Systemic risk is related to macroeconomic policies,and the evaluation of credit risk during bond duration is not only related to the Urban Investment Bonds themselves,but also Urban investment company.This paper uses the risk identification method to refer to the previous research results,combined with the requirements of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s "Guidelines for Credit Risk Management during the Duration of Corporate Bonds",compares the actual situation of the company,and divides the risks existing in the duration of urban investment bonds into four dimensions for qualitative analysis.The evaluations are macro-level risk,local government-level risk,urban investment company-level risk,and urban investment bond-level risk.Through the entropy value method,the four levels of bond risk are quantitatively evaluated,and the risks and hidden risks that need to be focused on during the bond duration are confirmed.Based on the background of stricter supervision policies for the duration of urban investment bonds,to avoid the default phenomenon of urban investment bonds,thereby avoiding losses for investors,this article proposes bond risk optimization suggestions from the perspective of urban investment companies and urban investment bonds.It has certain theoretical and practical significance for the continuous management of bonds to lay the foundation,improve the financing methods of urban investment companies,guide urban investment companies to actively prevent debt risks.And at the same time guide investors to establish awareness of urban investment debt risk prevention.