| In our country,the city bond is issued by the local government financing platform,and it is a "municipal bond" with Chinese characteristics".After 1994,China’s reform of the tax system caused by the serious local financial authority and powers do not match,appearance of the city voted bonds,to alleviate the pressure on local finance,has played an important role in promoting the city infrastructure construction.Before 2005,the city voted debt smaller,with superimposed increase financing channels and bond financing varieties and the financial crisis in 2008 launched 4 trillion economic stimulus plan and other factors,the city voted debt scale increase year by year,by the end of May 2014,the city voted debt stock reached 3 trillion and 150 billion.The risk from the central level to realize the city voted bonds may contain,the launch of the new budget law of our country in August 2014,allowed local governments to issue bonds,the revised "budget law" established the local government to issue bonds directly the legal basis,before the local government does not have this right.The establishment of this mechanism provides another financing channel for local governments.In the long run,it will help solve the problem of local government debt.Over the same period also introduced 43,Wen and other norms,norms,local government platform financing policy documents.The new policy made a significant adjustment of the city voted debt the original policy environment,the city voted bonds bear the mission and the original credit support environment(local government support contact)will undergo major changes,therefore,the risk assessment on the risk characteristics,grasp the present stage city voted debt stock of the city voted debt and the future of the city study on the investment and debt credit trend,whether for investors or related parties have very strong practical significance.Through the course of the city voted debt’s emergence and development,reveals the relationship between the city investment enterprises and local government are inseparable from the mainstream market;investors and credit rating agencies consistent understanding of the credit risk,grasp the essence of the city voted debt credit risk.Through the research on the credit rating rating stability,change data of the city voted debt,estimated the number and size of the city to vote bonds exist solvency risk bonds,found that the current city voted debt risk relative to the scale of the local financial strength,security is still high,but at the same time also found some areas due to the larger drop in debt and the local economic strength,adversely affect the city investment enterprises,formed a certain debt worries.To further analyze the credit risk of the city investment bond factors,through the analysis of the three factors affecting the city investment enterprises default,found that non economic factors(local government support)is caused by the city voted debt is not the main reason of default,short-term memory the city voted debt risk is still small,mainly due to the local government bonds at the present stage and local government support.At the same time,we have found that since 2014,the new adjustment of China’s investment enterprise policy has brought about a great change in the survival and credit support environment for city investment enterprises.the local government will fall on the city voted bonds is expected to support the new contact,the city voted bonds issued by the local government invisible support will gradually disappear.Therefore,the risk level of city bond investment will rise,investors should make timely strategy adjustments,and more attention should be paid to the operation ability of urban investment enterprises(hematopoietic ability). |
