Study On Revenue Insurance Rate Identification Based On Information Diffusion Model

The northeast region of China has always been an important grain planting base,known as "the granary of the country".As the main producing area of japonica rice in China,planting is always facing the risk of price and yield here.However,the current agricultural insurance in Liaoning is mainly yield insurance,which can only guarantee the loss of the yield.It can’t guarantee the price loss.The revenue insurance can not only guarantee the income loss caused by the risk of crop yield decline or price decline,but also guarantee the income loss caused by the joint action of the two factors.The development of agricultural revenue insurance can keep farmers’ income stable,and promote farmers actively carry out agricultural production.This paper studies the pricing of japonica rice revenue insurance in Liaoning,hoping to provide new ideas for the development of japonica rice revenue insurance in the future.First,this paper analyzes the background of the japonica rice revenue insurance in Liaoning Province,including the planting situation,the suffering risk and the necessity of developing revenue insurance.Then,two-dimensional information diffusion model was used to spread the yield and price data from 1999 to 2020,to obtain the joint probability density of yield and price data,and then to calculate the revenue insurance rate of japonica rice in Liaoning Province.Later,taking Liaoning Province as an example,designed the japonica rice revenue insurance plan,respectively from the insurance product of the insurance target,insurance period,insurance amount,insurance rate,insurance liability and insurance compensation six aspects.It was found that there was a weak negative correlation between the yield and price of japonica rice in Liaoning,requiring japonica rice revenue insurance.By using the two-dimensional diffusion mode,the net insurance rate is 4.92% at the 100% protection level.With the decline of the guarantee level,the pure rate fluctuates in a small range.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy opinions on the current operation status of revenue insurance,mainly including five aspects: data collection system,insurance management system,insurance supervision system,market-oriented risk dispersion system,and insurance service level.