The Study On Pricing Of Rice Revenue Insurance In Hunan Province Based On Copula

Hunan is known as the “land of fish and rice”,the main rice producing area in China.Its production is mainly faced with yield and price risk.However,agricultural insurance in Hunan Province is still dominated by yield insurance,which cannot guarantee the loss of revenue caused by price fluctuations to farmers.Carrying out agricultural product revenue insurance can guarantee the yield and price risk of crops,stabilize the revenue of farmers,and improve farmers' production enthusiasm.This paper conducts a preliminary study on the pricing of rice revenue insurance in Hunan Province,and makes a useful exploration for the future development of revenue insurance in Hunan Province.This paper first analyzes the production situation and revenue influencing factors of rice in Hunan Province,and then uses the H-P filtering method to decompose the yield and price series from 1988 to 2017 into trend items and fluctuation items.The revenue risk decomposition model and risk assessment indicators are used to quantitatively analyze the impact of revenue fluctuations caused by yield risk and price risk.And the necessity and feasibility of rice revenue insurance in Hunan Province were discussed from various aspects.After that,the revenue insurance prod uct design was carried out from the aspects of insurance subject and term,insurance liability and compensation rules.Finally,the pure rate of rice revenue insurance in Hunan Province was determined by Copula function and Monte Carlo method.The results show that the impact of price risk on revenue is much greater than the yield risk,and it is necessary to develop revenue insurance to protect price risk.After the rate is determined,the net rate varies between 0.47% and 7.91% at the level of 70%-100%,and the higher the level of protection,the greater the change in the net rate.Therefore,this paper proposes to choose the level at 80%.After the rate was determined,the revenue insurance and the current rice crop production insurance were compared by calculation,and the revenue insurance was found to be more cost-effective.Finally,this paper provides suggestions for rice revenue insurance in Hunan Province from four aspects.