Research On The Relationship Between Agricultural Product Price,Agricultural Land Transfer Rent And Agricultural Industrial Structure Based On PVAR Model

Agricultural products are not only important industrial raw materials,but also the foundation for human survival.The fluctuation of agricultural product prices reflects the changes in market demand for agricultural products.Agricultural producers and operators adjust their production plans based on changes in demand,resulting in corresponding fluctuations in agricultural land transfer rent.The production and operation of agricultural products will also change,ultimately leading to changes in the agricultural industry structure.The high-quality development of agriculture in the new era requires the transfer of agricultural land to promote the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure,and stable agricultural product prices are very necessary.From this,it can be seen that there is a close economic connection between agricultural product prices,agricultural land transfer rents,and agricultural industrial structure.Whether fluctuations in agricultural product prices will affect agricultural land transfer rents and trigger adjustments to agricultural industrial structure is not only related to national food security,but also closely related to the sustainable development of agriculture.Based on this,this article adopts panel data from 19 provinces(cities)throughout the country from 2005 to 2019,based on the national different from the eastern,central,and western regions,this study selected indicators such as agricultural product prices,agricultural land transfer rents,and the rationalization and advancement of agricultural industrial structure to construct a PVAR model.Using GMM estimation,impulse response analysis,and variance decomposition analysis methods,it explored the impact effects of agricultural product prices,agricultural land transfer rents,and agricultural industrial structure.Finally,based on the empirical results,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.The main research conclusions of the article are as follows:(1)Agricultural product prices,agricultural land transfer rents,and the rationalization and upgrading of agricultural industrial structures all have the characteristics of economic inertia and self reliance.(2)The price of agricultural products and the rent of agricultural land circulation can promote each other positively in the early and middle stages.The price of agricultural products has a long-term stable positive impact on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure.(3)There is a positive correlation between the rent of agricultural land transfer and the rationalization of agricultural industrial structure,and this positive correlation shows a consistency of first strengthening and then weakening.Rural land transfer rent is a long-term positive factor that affects the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure.(4)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the rationalization of agricultural industrial structure and the prices of agricultural products.The rationalization of agricultural industrial structure is an important foundation for the early development of advanced agriculture.(5)There is a "positive N-shaped" relationship between the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and the prices of agricultural products.There is a "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and the rent of agricultural land circulation,which is briefly delayed in the initial stage.The upgrading of agricultural industrial structure has a negative impact on rationalization that first strengthens and then weakens.(6)The prices of agricultural products and land transfer rents have a positive impact on the rationalization of agricultural industrial structure in the eastern region,a positive impact on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure in the central region,and a positive effect on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure in the western region.According to the research conclusion,it is recommended to improve the government’s governance level and leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy to stimulate the endogenous driving force of agriculture.Further improve the pricing system for agricultural products and maintain relative stability of agricultural product prices through multiple channels.Improving the efficiency of agricultural land transfer and adhering to the priority of protecting the cornerstone of agricultural development through agricultural land and grain production.Improve the scientific coordination of station positioning and promote the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure in balancing food security and economic benefits.Integrate into the domestic systemic circulation,and follow the agricultural development path that conforms to local characteristics according to local conditions.