Research On The Impact Of China’s Real Estate Industry On The Systemic Financial Risk Of The Banking Industry

In recent years,China has put forward new requirements to "resolutely guard the bottom line of no systemic financial risks".As a pillar industry of China’s n ational economy,the real estate industry has a huge demand for capital and is closely related to China’s banking industry.This paper studies the relationship between China’s real estate industry and the systemic financial risk of the banking industry,wh ich is of great significance to the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry and the banking industry.This paper adopts the complex network approach in system dynamics to assess the risk of each institution in China’s banking industry an d,on this basis,uses a panel vector autoregressive model to study the relationship between the impact of China’s real estate industry on the banking industry.The main contents include seven parts: the first part is the introduction,which introduces the background and significance of the study,summarises the existing relevant literature from three perspectives and illustrates the possible innovation points of the study;the second part provides an overview of relevant concepts and theories,which provid es theoretical support for the later study;the third part analyses and explains the mechanism of the influence of the real estate industry and the banking industry on systemic financial risk;the fourth part is based on Part IV assesses the systemic finan cial risk of the banking industry based on complex networks;Part V empirically analyses the relationship between the real estate industry and the systemic financial risk of the banking industry in China based on the PVAR model;Part VI proposes countermea sures to prevent systemic financial risk based on the previous research;Part VII summarises the research findings of the article and provides an outlook on future research directions.The findings of this paper are as follows:(1)Simulation of the bankin g system based on the complex network model yields ICBC,CCB,Bank of China,Pudong Development Bank,Agricultural Bank,Bank of Communications,Minsheng Bank,CITIC Bank,Everbright Bank and Industrial Bank as systemically important banks.(2)Based on the susceptibility index of the impact of complex networks on the banking system,the systemically vulnerable banks were calculated and identified as Bank of Hangzhou,Bank of Xi’an,Bank of Chongqing,Bank of Chongqing,Bank of China,Bank of Beijing,Bank of Shanghai,Bank of Chengdu,Zijin Bank,Bank of Zhejiang,Bank of Chongqing,Bank of Suzhou,Bank of Lanzhou and Bank of Nanjing.(3)Bank systemic financial risk had a more significant positive response effect on own shocks,credit shocks to the real estate industry and shocks to personal housing loans.(4)The contribution of bank systemic risk to its own variance is absolutely dominant and tends to decrease gradually as the number of periods increases.Both real estate credit and personal housing loans also contribute to the variance of banks’ systemic financial risk,and the contribution increases with the lag period.Both real estate credit and personal housing loans in the SIB sample explain more of the systemic financial risk of banks than in the SVC sample.(5)The explanatory degree of personal housing loans to bank systemic risk is greater than that of real estate loans to bank systemic risk in both the systemically important and systemically vulnerable bank samples,and the explanatory degree of real estate credit to bank systemic risk in the banking system is greater than that of personal housing loans to bank systemic risk.