The Impact Of House Price Fluctuations In My Country On Systemic Financial Risks

Many crises in the history of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 have shown that real estate price fluctuations are an important cause of financial risks.At present.China's economic development is highly dependent on the real estate market.Financial resources are excessively concentrated on the real estate market.China's housing prices have continued to rise in the past three years,especially with the rise of irrational prices in the central and eastern regions,which has led to the accumulation of risks.With the promotion of financial liberalization,the impact of real estate price fluctuations on systemic financial risks has become increasingly prominent.In this context,this paper discusses the impact mechanism and dynamic effects of price fluctuations on systemic financial risks in China,and proposes countermeasures against systemic financial risks accordingly.This article first combs the relevant theory of the impact of real estate price fluctuations on systemic financial risks,and focuses on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the impact of price fluctuations on systemic financial risks,and finds that house price fluctuations will affect systemic financial risks through real estate mortgage loan channels and capital funds channels.Conducted in the real estate market,the financial system and even the macro economy.Then,it analyzes the macro background of price fluctuations and systemic financial risks.It was found that the price fluctuations in China as a whole showed an upward trend "with regional characteristics and transmission effects.In addition,under the background of financial liberalization and financial innovation,systemic financial risks have expanded.Afterwards,five secondary indicators and 15 tertiary indicators were constructed to construct China's systemic financial risk index,and the three indicators of average sales price of real estate,year-on-year growth rate of real estate mortgage loans,and one-year deposit interest rate were selected.The VAR model was constructed from the financial risk index,and the main conclusions were drawn:(1)The price fluctuations and real estate mortgage loan growth rate are Granger causes of systemic financial risks.House price volatility is one of the most important factors affecting systemic financial risk.With the interaction between rising house prices and the expansion of real estate mortgages,systemic financial risks have continued to increase.(2)Short-term interest rate hikes and credit crunch will increase systemic financial risks.The effect of long-term interest rate adjustment policies is not obvious.Finally,on the basis of the previous text,we put forward countermeasures to prevent systemic financial risks:short-term promotion of supply and demand balance in the real estate market,establishment of long-term control mechanisms,and cutting off the real estate price fluctuations trigger the conduction path of systemic financial risks.