Impact Of Real Estate Loan On Systematic Risks Of Commercial Banks In China

The US subprime mortgage crisis triggered by real estate loans has not only damaged the US real estate market and the banking system,but also the crisis from the United States have brought a heavy blow to the other countries.This aroused thought about problems of China's real estate development.Although the period of China's real estate development is not long,the development momentum is high enough.Such a rapid development trend is a great risk of crisis.As the close relationship between real estate market and the banking system,the risk caused by the real estate market will inevitably spread to the banking system to harm all aspects of the national economy.From the perspective of real estate loans,to study its impact on the systemic risk of banks,and targeted to the relevant policy recommendations for China's real estate industry are essential for banking and even the healthy and stable development of the national economy.This paper first analyzes the Subprime crisis,real estate loans and the systematic risk of banking system and its mutual influence.Secondly,it analyzes the present situation of the real estate market and the systematic risk of the bank,and then to construct the systemic risk Index of the bank.Besides,the introduction of two macroeconomic variables,the use of 2006-2016 quarterly data help us to construct the VAR model.Through impulse response analysis,variance decomposition on China's real estate market impact of banking systemic risk of empirical research,we draw the corresponding conclusions.The conclusion shows that the systematic risk of commercial banks in China is stable and long-term relationship with real estate loans.The increase in real estate loans first increased the systemic risk of commercial banks,but after a period of adjustment,markets gradually become rational.In addition,a stress test of China's banking industry has been carried out.In the mild,moderate and severe pressure,the bank system's Banking System Risk Index raised correspondingly.From the results of the stress test,non-performing loan rates have different degrees of improvement under different pressures,but overall,the Banking System Risk Index growth is limited,which for China's banking system is a more optimistic conclusion.Finally,according to the results of the study,from the regulatory side,the banking level and the real estate industry three aspects,we give the corresponding recommendations.