| With the deepening of globalization and the rapid development of information and communication technology,the international division of labor and the transfer of world financial services have further deepened,and the offshore outsourcing of financial services has become an important economic form in the twenty-first century with strong flexibility and low cost,and the corresponding trade in financial intermediate goods has been developed rapidly.The current domestic and foreign literature is full of studies on the scale of financial services trade in the traditional statistical way,as well as the existing studies on financial services exports in the value chain perspective,which also do not take into account the variability of development among different financial sectors,covering all capital services in a broad concept such as finance(excluding insurance),insurance,financial and insurance auxiliary activities.In terms of research content,there is a lack of more in-depth value chain research on both financial service sub-sectors and the internal structure level of exports(intermediate goods exports and final goods exports).Meanwhile,it is found in the study of financial cross-border services that the study of its relationship with financial risk has been a hot topic of attention in domestic and foreign academia.By combing the literature,it is found that financial services trade is an important channel of international financial risk transmission,but much of the existing literature ignores the impact of the internal structure of financial services exports on financial risk.Against the above background,based on the perspective of forward value chain export value added,this paper quantitatively analyzes the total export characteristics and different export patterns of financial services segments,studing the relationship between export pattern of financial services and national financial risks.The value-added of financial services exports based on forward value chain consists of value-added of financial services intermediate exports and value-added of final exports,and its export pattern is divided into intermediate export pattern and final export pattern.Among them,the intermediate goods export pattern refers to the exporting country initially engaged in production and requires further processing across the border;the final goods export pattern refers to the exporting country from the initial participation in the production process to the formation of the final goods are carried out in the country,only once across the border and does not require further processing pattern.Firstly,using the data on the value added of exports of financial services sub-sectors of 43 economies worldwide from 2000 to 2014,the value added of financial services exports is analyzed quantitatively to obtain typical facts about the heterogeneity of the development of financial services sub-sectors of economies in the world,i.e.,the development gap between different financial sub-sectors is more obvious,among which financial services(excluding insurance)accounts for the main component of total financial services exports,and also through formula calculation to understand the characteristics of bilateral financial services exports between economies and partners.Secondly,based on the value-added data of intermediate and final exports,the typicalized fact of the rapid development of financial intermediate goods in the world is obtained,that is,the financial services intermediate goods export mode is becoming an important mode of financial services exports in various sub-sectors of financial services exports and the development characteristics of export value-added scale in two export patterns in each economy and region by constructing indicators and calculating ways to understand.Finally,this paper constructs a theoretical model of the impact of financial services export patterns on country financial risk and empirically tests the impact of different export patterns on country financial risk under the financial services sub-sector.The results find that exports of financial services(excluding insurance)intermediate goods have a significant contribution to national financial risk aversion,and the results remain robust after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments.The heterogeneity test yields that exports of financial services(excluding insurance)intermediate goods are more likely to significantly reduce the probability of country risk compared to exports of final goods and exports of intermediate goods in other financial sub-sectors.In order to understand the mechanism of the impact of financial services intermediate exports on financial risk scores,based on the forward value chain division of labor under which forward participating countries can focus on core business research and enhance value chain bargaining power,labor productivity and financial structural power in the financial industry are selected as channel variables for testing,and it is concluded that financial services intermediate exports can have an effective impact on financial risk scores through the above channel variables.The paper concludes that financial intermediate exports can have an effective impact on financial risk scores through the above channel variables and that the deepening of participation in financial intermediate exports helps to enhance the impact on national financial risk scores through channel variables.The paper also concludes that financial openness and capital controls can effectively moderate the impact of financial intermediate exports on financial risk.The findings of this paper provide the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the continued promotion of deeper participation in financial services trade in global value chains and thus avoidance of national financial risks. |
