Reliable Global Supply Chain Network Design Under Correlated Disruptions

With economic globalization and the promotion of "The Belt and Road" in recent years,the pace of enterprises going global has been promoted,and the importance of building a suitable global supply chain network has become increasingly significant.Since the global supply chain is affected by many uncertain natural or man-made factors,coupled with the constant trade frictions,the crossborder supply chain faces great risk of uncertain disruption.How to deal with this uncertainty disruption has urgent practical significance.Therefore,this paper conducts an in-depth study on global supply chain networks.Consider the layout of the supply chain network of cross-border enterprises with multi-module and multimodel products,and take into account the impact of cross-border factors such as tariffs and exchange rates.The mixed-integer linear programming model in deterministic case and the distributionally robust model in the case of random and correlated disruptions are proposed respectively.The models are applied to the design of a global supply chain network of an electronics manufacturing company and provide decision support for the company.In addition,this paper analyzes the supermodularity of the underlying models for supply chain networks with different structures,so as to provide theoretical support for the application of distributionally robust optimization in supply chain network design.First,an optimal design of a deterministic global supply chain network is carried out.Among them,network construction decisions such as supplier selection and factory location,as well as actual production operation decisions such as procurement,production and transportation are considered.Cross-border factors such as tariffs and exchange rates are also incorporated.Then,a mixed integer linear programming model is constructed.And the validity of the model is verified.Second,the optimal design of global supply chain network with random and correlated supply disruptions is studied.To cope with supply disruptions,attention is paid to resilience strategies such as alternative design solution selection,supplier and plant selection,and compensation decisions such as parts procurement,production,and transportation after disruptions.To describe the uncertain correlated disruptions of multiple supply sources,an ambiguous set based on the marginal distribution is constructed when the joint distribution is hard to be known.And a distributionally robust optimization is carried out on the worst joint distribution.As a result,a min-max-min model is proposed.By proving the supermodularity of the second-stage problem,an analytical expression for the worst-case joint distribution is given,leading to an equivalent solvable two-stage stochastic programming model.Finally,to address the problem that both supply and demand nodes in the supply chain have random and correlated disruptions,a corresponding flexible supply chain network model is constructed.And the ambiguous set of uncertain disruptions is constructed using the idea of distributionally robustness,so that the non-negligible correlation between node disruptions is taken into account.Based on this,a two-stage distributionally robust model is constructed with a hard-tosolve min-max-min structure,and the supermodularity is proved for the second stage problem of the model.Through a series of equivalence treatments such as Lagrangian duals,it is confirmed that the supply chain network with the risk of disruptions in both supply and demand is supermodular in nature when the disruption scenario is specially constructed.Finally,the mixed integer linear programming model obtained from the equivalence transformation is numerically analyzed to obtain management insights.The results of this paper show that supply chain node disruptions can significantly affect profits and have an impact on decisions such as the choice of initial product design solutions and supplier selection.In addition,considering alternative product design solutions that are less affected by disruptions can effectively increase supply chain resilience and enhance the ability of firms to cope with adverse trade environments.The above study enriches the theoretical work related to supply chain disruptions,improves the design optimization research of global supply chain networks,and broadens the application of distributionally robust optimization in global supply chains,and also provides a decision basis for the design of supply chain networks for cross-border enterprises facing the possibility of disruptions.