Robust Design Model And Optimization In Supply Chain Considering Supply Disruption

In resent years, while the external environment uncertainty of the supply chain becomes more and more serious, in order to minimize the supply chain’s losses caused by supply disruption, how to prevent disruptions as much as possible and how to respond to disruptions that may happen become one of chief problems that supply chain enterprises have to face and cope with. They also become one of hot issues that theory researchers research on.The paper considers a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a main supplier and a backup supplier. And models single-product and multi-product supply chain under certainty situation separately when considering supply disruption. In the model, three objects of supply chain are considered at the same time. They are the manufacturer’s profit, the main supplier’s profit and the backup supplier’s profit. Then integrate three objectives model into single objective programming model. Perform simulation and calculation. Analyze and compare results of single-product with multi-product. Meanwhile, the paper also builds supply chain models under the supply disruption’s probability uncertainty, the market demand uncertainty and the selling price uncertainty when considering supply disruption. Apply Scenario Analysis and Bertsimas’robust optimization method based on interval analysis to describe these uncertainties. Under the condition of the manufacturer’s profit, the main supplier’s profit and the backup supplier’s profit maximization, make the designed robust model can resist certain uncertainty. Besides, simulate robust models and analyze results under these three uncertainties.After simulating and analyzing single-product and multi-product supply chain models under certainty situation, it is found that the backup supplier have certain effect on preventing and dealing with supply disruption when the probability of supply disruption is small. It is also found that the influence to multi-product supply chain is much bigger than single-supply chain under supply disruption. After simulating and analyzing robust design models under uncertainties, it is proved that robust models are "robust" when the uncertainty parameters (the supply disruption’s probability, the market demand and the selling price) within certain ranges.