A Study Of The Impact Of Us Trade Policy Uncertainty On The Competitiveness Of Chinese Manufacturing Exports To The United States

As a global manufacturing power,China’s manufacturing exports account for more than 90% of the national trade exports,is the core strength of China’s foreign trade development.For a long time,the United States has been the main exporter of China’s manufacturing industry.However,since the launch of China’s "Made in China2025" program,the United States has begun to impose varying degrees of suppression and restrictions on various manufacturing sectors in China.The US has imposed huge tariffs on a variety of Chinese exports to the US and continues to adjust its trade policies towards China.This has had a significant impact on China’s industries that depend on exports to the US,with the manufacturing sector being the first to be hit.Therefore,this paper attempts to investigate the relationship between the uncertainty of the US trade policy and the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing exports to the United States.This paper first defines the concepts of trade policy uncertainty and export competitiveness,then reviews and summarizes the literature on the measurement of trade policy uncertainty,the impact of trade policy uncertainty on trade,the factors affecting export competitiveness,and trade policy uncertainty and manufacturing.Secondly,the current situation of trade policy uncertainty in the US and the scale and competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry exports to the US is analyzed,and it is understood that the trade policy uncertainty in the US has changed a lot in recent years,and the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry exports to the US has shown a trend of fluctuation and decline.Further,by analyzing the relevant theories and putting forward the research hypothesis of this paper.Based on the hypothesis,an econometric model is constructed to study the relationship between US trade policy uncertainty and the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports to the US,and to further investigate whether the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports to the US is industry heterogeneous.Finally,relevant advices are made for improving the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports from the national and enterprise levels,and the results of this paper are as follows.(1)US trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative inhibitory effect on the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing exports to the United States.Through the theoretical analysis in Chapter 4,the rise of trade policy uncertainty will lead to an increase in export costs of enterprises through the sunk cost effect,and enterprises may minimize their losses by reducing exports,and in more serious cases,these enterprises will withdraw from the markets of export destination countries,reducing export competitiveness.Actually,the results of the empirical analysis in Chapter 5 of this paper also show that the negative inhibitory effect of increased uncertainty in US trade policy on the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports to the US is significant.(2)Innovation can not only have a direct positive impact on the US competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports,but also mitigate the negative impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the US competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing exports.(3)The influences of US trade policy uncertainty on the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing exports to the US has significant industry heterogeneity.The negative impact of US trade policy uncertainty on China’s technology-intensive manufacturing industries is the largest,followed by capital-intensive manufacturing industries that are negatively affected,and labor-intensive manufacturing industries are positively and positively affected instead.