The Perspective Of Time And Space On The Impact Of China’s Real Estate Bubble On The High-Quality Development Of Urban Economy

Since the marketization of China’s real estate industry in 1998,the rapid development of the real estate market gradually become a supporting industry for China’s economic take-off and national strength.The rapid development of the real estate industry has also brought great crises to the social environment,ecological construction and economic development.Based on the major development strategy of the state on ‘stabilizing land prices,stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations’,To optimize the development of the real estate industry and promote high-quality economic development become the main task of regional economic growth.In view of this,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of the real estate bubble on the high-quality development of China’s economy from the perspective of time and space,which is conducive to solve the problems faced by the development of the real estate market and promote the sustained realization of high-quality economic development.This thesis firstly arrangement the research literature on real estate bubble and economic high quality from the theoretical level,and selects the annual data of 283prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020.First of all,from the three levels of social development,economic construction and ecological environment,a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality economic development is constructed.Secondly,the new weighting method and the Markov distance are used to improve the superior and inferior solution distance method,and the improved superior and inferior solution distance model is used to measure the high-quality economic development index.The standard deviation ellipse was again used to analyze the spatial characteristics of the real estate bubble and economic high-quality development index of Chinese cities and four major economic divisions.Finally,the spatial Dubin model under the time effect is used to deeply explore the impact effect of China’s real estate bubble on the high-quality development of the economy,and the price-to-income ratio model is replaced by the real estate investment ratio for robustness test.The following conclusions are based on the above analysis.(1)The economic high-quality development index shows an upward trend,and the real estate bubble index fluctuates.(2)The high-quality economic development index shows a spatial distribution pattern of ‘high in the middle of the four weeks’,and the real estate bubble presents the spatial distribution law of ‘high in the east and low in the west’,the high-quality economic development and the space effect of the real estate bubble are becoming more and more significant.(3)The spatial differences in the eastern region are the largest,and the spatial differences in the northeast,central and western regions are small.(4)The real estate bubble and the high-quality economic development index show an inverted ‘U’ shaped relationship,the industrial structure,education level and science and technology on the high-quality economic development is a positive promotion effect,the government influences and living standards inhibit the high-quality development of the economy.