A Study On The Fluctuation And Influencing Factors Of China’s Digital Service Trade Exports To RCEP Member States

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the rapid development of digital technology,the Internet access rate and smartphone penetration rate have exploded,gradually changing the way goods and services are provided,and the development of digital service trade has entered the "fast lane".Especially during the new crown epidemic,problems such as cross-border communication obstacles,tightening global demand,and labor shortage have continuously forced digital service trade to break through innovation.At the same time,the global digital trade competition is intensifying,different camps are clearly different,as the Asia-Pacific region with a poor foundation but the fastest growth rate of digital service trade,urgently needs innovative cooperation mechanisms to enhance the overall competitiveness of the region,and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)came into being.After the agreement takes effect,RCEP will become the digital service trade agreement with the highest liberalization commitment signed by China,so it is of great practical significance to study the factors influencing China’s digital service trade fluctuations in RCEP partner countries.This paper focuses on the issue of China’s digital service trade export within the framework of RCEP.First of all,the signing process of RCEP and relevant contents of digital trade will be sorted out.The text differences of RCEP,TPP and bilateral digital trade agreements signed by China and the United States will be emphatically compared,and then the characteristics of RCEP rules will be analyzed.Secondly,it makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the current situation of China’s digital service trade export under the framework of RCEP,which is mainly divided into five dimensions,namely the overall scale,export structure,restrictive measures,competitiveness and complementarity.Finally,the expansion form of the constant market model is used to decompose the export fluctuation factors of China’s digital service trade to RCEP member countries.The conclusion is as follows:From the overall point of view.In the first-order decomposition,the export growth of China’s digital service trade within the framework of RCEP is mainly dominated by the structural effect.In 2009,due to the impact of the financial crisis,the export growth of China’s digital service trade to RCEP member countries is negative,and in other years,it is positive,indicating that the growth of China’s export to RCEP member countries is mainly driven by market demand.However,the competition effect fluctuates greatly and has many negative values.The contribution rate exceeded the structural effect only in 2010 and 2018,indicating that China’s export competitiveness of digital service trade with RCEP member countries is weak on the whole and needs to be improved.From the perspective of country,all countries except New Zealand are dominated by the structural effect of export fluctuations,while the competition effect in most countries is more volatile and negative.From the perspective of export country structure,the positive competition effect is not achieved in Japan,which accounts for a large proportion of exports,while the competition effect on ASEAN is positive but shows a downward trend.From the perspective of classified products,other business services and ICT services with a large export share mainly rely on the demand growth of RCEP member countries to stimulate the export growth.Products with a small export share are driven by competitiveness,but the rising trend of competitiveness is not obvious and export growth makes a small contribution.From the point of view of time connection,it is mainly affected by the overall demand change and regional trade agreement.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:enhance strategic recognition and improve the regional digital service trade cooperation mechanism.Improve the overall development level of digital trade and continuously optimize the industrial structure.Stimulate the demand for digital trade in foreign markets and Enhance the competitiveness of digital trade.Create cooperation opportunities to improve the international competitiveness of digital service trade.Improve domestic laws and regulations on the rules of digital service trade that set high standards.