| In the past two decades,China’s export has continued to grow at a high speed,which has greatly promoted the regional economic and the pace of urban development.However,in the course of China’s economic development,it has experienced many internal and external shocks,such as the market economic system reform in 1992,the Asian financial crisis in 1997,the international financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020,the benign development of a city should not only focus on the growth of various economic indicators,but also pay attention to its economic resilience in the face of shocks.The distribution of urban export structure is different,and the ability of cities to cope with crisis is also different.In this context,does urban export tend to specialization or diversification? Will this affect urban economic resilience? What are the mechanisms that influence urban economic resilience? How to effectively optimize the export structure and improve the ability and performance of Chinese cities to deal with shocks in the process of development? These problems need to be solved.Firstly,through literature review,this thesis discriminates and defines the concepts related to resilience,economic resilience and export specialization and diversification.Combined with the theory of path dependence,vulnerability and economic growth,this thesis summarizes the research results on the index measurement and influencing factors of export specialization,diversification and economic resilience.Secondly,this thesis analyzes the theoretical impact mechanism of export specialization and diversification on urban economic resilience through direct and indirect effects.In the empirical part,this thesis uses the data of China’s industrial enterprise database,urban statistical yearbook and other prefecture level cities from 2005 to2015,based on the aggregation of three digit code industry export data,measures the level of export specialization,horizontal and vertical diversification by using the Herfindal index,the number of export industries and the proportion of manufacturing exports,and measures the level of urban economic resilience by using the per capita real GDP growth rate,employment rate,night light data and comprehensive index method,Combined with the characteristics of regional distribution and urban scale,the thesis makes a descriptive statistical analysis.Finally,the thesis makes an empirical analysis on the export structure and economic toughness by using the ordinary least square method and the systematic GMM method.At the same time,it makes a heterogeneity analysis on the scale of the East,central and western regions and large,medium and small cities,uses the measurement method of replacing the explained variables to test the robustness,and carries out the mechanism test from the perspectives of technological innovation,human capital and industrial upgrading.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows :(1)in terms of the level of export specialization,the east,the middle and the west,and cities of large,medium and small sizes also increase in turn,while the level of export diversification and urban economic resilience are opposite.(2)Overall,export specialization weakens economic resilience,while horizontal and vertical export diversification significantly enhances economic resilience.In terms of regional distribution,export specialization is negatively correlated with economic resilience in eastern and central cities,while export diversification is positively correlated with economic resilience.In western China,export specialization and horizontal diversification play a positive role in promoting economic resilience,while vertical diversification plays an insignificant role.In terms of city size,the analysis results of large-scale cities are consistent with the overall sample.However,for medium-sized cities,the specialization and diversification of export can significantly enhance the economic resilience of cities,while the export structure of small-scale cities has no significant impact on the economic resilience.(3)Through the mechanism test of export diversification and economic resilience,it shows that the diversification level of export structure can significantly enhance the economic resilience of cities by stimulating technological innovation,accumulating human capital and promoting industrial upgrading.It is once again proved that improving the level of export diversification helps to improve the resistance and resilience of cities to cope with shocks.Therefore,this paper proposes that we should actively adjust China’s product export strategy,gradually and orderly turn export specialization into an export scheme focusing on product diversification,and pay attention to realizing the dynamic balance between export specialization and diversification in cities in different regions and stages;We should give full play to the coordinating role of the government,promote the wide flow of factors of production,give certain policy support to the central and western regions and small and medium-sized cities,and strengthen cooperation between regions and cities;Cities should formulate development strategies in line with the actual situation according to their own characteristics,rather than blindly and completely deny specialization or diversification,and timely adjust the strategies according to the development stage and the changes of the external environment. |
