A Study On The Measurement Of Double Cycle Development Level And Its Temporal And Spatial Characteristics On Economic Growth

Building a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other is an important scientific judgment and strategic choice made by China based on the domestic economic situation and international development trend.The new development pattern of dual cycle requires that both domestic and international sides form a small cycle,while a large cycle must also be formed between them.The small cycle ensures the operation of the large cycle,while the large cycle promotes the development of the small cycle.Both of them jointly constitute a dual cycle and promote economic growth.The determination of China’s development pattern is determined jointly by domestic and international economic conditions,and is a strategic choice made by China in the process of seeking to achieve industrialization based on domestic development needs and changes in the international situation.Based on this background,this paper studies the effects of dual cycle integration,domestic cycle,and international cycle on economic growth,and further analyzes their spatial effects.This article attempts to provide policy recommendations on the imbalance in the process of economic development,helping to achieve coordinated economic development,which has certain theoretical and practical significance.The concept of dual cycle new development pattern was proposed in2020,but its economic connotation refers to an economic form that already exists.Therefore,this article uses Zhang Shuai’s multi region and multi sector trade model for reference,using the 2007,2012,and 2017input-output tables,and starting from the perspective of inter provincial trade,calculates the "domestic cycle" measured by domestic trade and the "international cycle" measured by international trade,observing the spatial and temporal characteristics of the cycle level and its economic growth effects from the perspective of inter provincial domestic and international trade.Combining the circular level of domestic trade based on the perspective of inter provincial trade with other influencing factors of the dual cycle in the real economic context,a more scientific and comprehensive measurement system of the dual cycle development level is constructed to calculate the dual cycle development level for2017-2020.Further,using spatial econometric methods,this paper conducts empirical analysis on the coordination of economic growth in the context of dual cycles at the national and regional levels,studies the spatial characteristics of economic development in the context of dual cycles,and puts forward suggestions for the coordinated development of regional economies in China.The research findings are as follows: First,the overall,domestic,and international development levels of the dual cycle have spatial correlations,accompanied by significant spatial aggregation.Second,increase the overall level of development of the dual cycle,and at the national level,the economy can achieve good growth.The eastern and western regions have benefited more from the development of a dual cycle.Thirdly,the development of domestic recycling is more conducive to the economic growth of the underdeveloped regions in the west,while the eastern regions rarely benefit from domestic recycling.Therefore,the development of domestic recycling plays an important role in promoting and reducing the imbalance in economic development between regions.Fourth,the eastern region is more benefiting from the development of the international cycle,which cannot effectively promote economic growth in the underdeveloped regions of the central and western regions.Therefore,the development of the international cycle will lead to a widening gap in economic development between regions,which is not conducive to coordinated economic development.