Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of H Enterprise Based On Entropy Method And Efficiency Coefficient Method

As an important industry related to people’s livelihood,the real estate industry has experienced more than 30 years of wind and rain with the reform and opening up.Benefiting from the rapid development of Chinese economy and the rise of urban rates,the real estate industry once developed well.However,the development of any industry is not smooth,and the current operation of real estate enterprises is full of risks and challenges.The first is the impact of policies.In order to better promote the reform of the supply side,the government has introduced such policies as "three removal,one reduction and one subsidy" and "no speculation on housing and housing",which have an adverse impact on the sales of real estate enterprises.After 2019,the government introduced stricter restrictions on several financing methods and financing scale of real estate enterprises,narrowing financing channels and reducing the amount,and putting higher requirements on the cash flow of enterprises.Secondly,real estate enterprises have a large capital demand,a high proportion of debt,and a long payback cycle.These characteristics determine that compared with general manufacturing enterprises,real estate enterprises have a higher financial risk.Due to the downward macroeconomic environment,harsh policy environment and increasing financial pressure of the industry under the epidemic,multiple factors have led to a number of real estate enterprises in China experiencing thunderstorms since 2021.Real estate enterprises need effective financial early warning work to prevent possible financial crisis.H Enterprise is a real estate enterprise that has been established for 25 years.In recent years,its performance has been declining,with frequent debt default cases and deteriorating financial situation.The main research content of this paper is as follows:firstly,it summarizes the relevant literature around the topic of financial crisis early warning,and explains the relevant theories and concepts;Secondly,taking H enterprise as an example,it briefly introduces the general situation of the enterprise,describes the performance of the enterprise’s current financial predicament,analyzes the causes of these phenomena and the necessity of financial crisis early warning.Secondly,the financial crisis early warning system is constructed.The evaluation indexes are screened by the combination of entropy method and correlation analysis,and the entropy method is used as the index to give weight,and then the efficiency coefficient method is used to construct the financial crisis early warning model.Then,the early warning results were calculated and the effectiveness of the early warning system was tested,and the actual value of the early warning for H enterprise from 2016 to 2021 was calculated.The vertical effectiveness test was carried out based on the actual operation conditions of each year,and ten listed real estate enterprises of the same type were selected for horizontal effectiveness test.Finally,the warning results are analyzed and improvement suggestions are given.The results show that H enterprise is in the state of alarm from 2016 to 2021,and it reaches the state of heavy alarm in 2020 and 2021.After analysis,it is consistent with the actual operating conditions of the enterprise,and the alarm of ten enterprises in horizontal test is basically consistent with the actual conditions,which proves that the financial crisis warning model established in this paper is effective.Through the establishment of the model,It can help enterprises develop better and healthily.The research in this paper not only helps H enterprise improve its awareness of crisis warning and prevent major financial crisis,but also hopes to bring enlightenment to other companies in the same industry.