Research On Investment Decision-making Of Guzhai Project Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

With the real estate industry from scratch,from financialization,scale development to comprehensive and refined management,the real estate investment decision-making method has never involved relying on courage at all,from the traditional method to profit measurement,supplemented by subjective judgment to the limitations of traditional methods.Most of the existing developable projects are complex real estate projects,and one of the typical Guzhai projects has the problem of single dimension of profit measurement and evaluation and difficulty in subjective judgment and unification of opinions of decision-makers when using traditional methods to make decisions.In order to cope with the severe industry situation,it is urgent to provide reference for the investment decisions of complex real estate projects through the formation methodology of the Guzhai project.This paper links the Guzhai project with investment theory and decision theory,uses Delphi method and analytic hierarchy method to define various indicators affecting real estate investment decisions,establishes an index set and comment set,and constructs a comprehensive,systematic and practical index system.On this basis,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy method is introduced to build an evaluation calculation framework,the subjective judgment opinions of the decision-making expert team are quantified,the weights of each factor of the index set are determined,the membership calculation method of each level of the comment set and the overall evaluation synthesis operation method of the project are clarified,and the investment decision-making methodology of complex real estate projects is formed.Then,the application analysis of the two practical scenarios of pre-investment judgment whether to invest and post-investment judgment whether to withdraw was carried out on the Guzhai project,and the advantages of the traditional method were analyzed,which verified the practicality and scientific nature of the method.Finally,the experience of investment decisions of complex real estate projects is summarized.The innovation of this paper lies in the establishment of an index system for investment decision-making,the determination of quantitative methods for evaluation calculation,and the summary of implementation policies and specific measures for investment decisions.Firstly,from the practical point of view,four second-level indicators,sixteen third-level indicators and four-level evaluation levels were defined,and an index system for investment decision-making of complex real estate projects was established.According to the weight from largest to smallest,the secondary indicators are investment difficulty,investment risk,investment income,investment cycle,and the third-level indicators are land acquisition difficulty,capital gap risk,land financing difficulty,financial income,land payment difficulty,cooperative entity risk,land acquisition cycle,brand income,transaction design risk,sales cycle,unforeseeable risk,hidden income,partner income,construction application cycle,social benefit,and project cycle.The corresponding comments of real estate investment decision-making conclusions are excellent,good,medium and poor,the corresponding comments of difficulty indicators are small,small,large and large,the corresponding comments of risk indicators are low,low,higher and high,the corresponding comments of income indicators are high,high,low and low,and the corresponding comments of cyclical indicators are short,short,longer and long.Secondly,the subjective judgment opinions of the decision-making expert team are quantified through theoretical methods,so that the evaluation results are displayed in clear numbers.In terms of quantifying the importance of indicators,the corresponding weights of the above secondary indicators are 0.564,0.263,0.118,0.055,and the corresponding weights of the above three-level indicators are 0.359,0.174,0.146,0.067,0.059,0.052,0.030,0.026,0.023,0.016,0.014,0.014,0.008,0.006,0.004,0.004.In terms of quantifying the rating of comments,the proportion of the number of experts who select the same comments to the total number of decision-making experts in the team is normalized to establish a comprehensive evaluation matrix.In terms of the quantification of evaluation calculation,the comprehensive evaluation results of the project are obtained by combining the weight of the comprehensive index set corresponding to the index system and the comprehensive comment matrix,and the decision-making conclusion can be obtained by corresponding to the comment set according to the principle of maximum membership.Finally,through the summary of experience,14 specific measures were formed corresponding to the implementation of pre-decision-making in the project expansion stage,rapid decision-making and accurate decision-making in the investment decision-making stage,the implementation of project optimization and risk prevention and control in the post-investment stage,and the need to set clear investment or abandonment benchmarks in the investment decision-making stage.