Impact Of CPTPP Accession On China’s Manufacturing Global Value Chain Division Status

In recent years,the international economic and trade landscape has undergone profound changes,with trade protectionism and other "anti-globalisation" trends prevailing,and the multilateral trade framework of the World Trade Organisation(WTO)becoming increasingly difficult to bridge differences between countries,with multilateral trade negotiations at an impasse,while The multilateral trade framework of the World Trade Organisation(WTO)has become increasingly difficult to bridge differences between countries,and multilateral trade negotiations have stalled,while more flexible regional trade agreements have flourished.The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)has become the highest standard regional trade agreement in force in the Asia-Pacific region.China has always insisted on participating in global economic governance with the concept of implementing a higher level of opening up to the outside world and creating a high-level free trade zone,and officially submitted its application to join the CPTPP on 16 September 2021.Therefore,it is important to study the impact of joining the CPTPP on the global value chain division of labour in China’s manufacturing industry,both in theory and practice.This paper takes China’s accession to the CPTPP as the main line,firstly,it compares the existing literature and the content of the CPTPP regional trade agreement,then further clarifies the impact mechanism of the free trade agreement on global value chains,and then uses the GTAP model to simulate the impact on the total trade effect of China’s manufacturing industry under different degrees of trade liberalisation after China’s accession to the CPTPP.Finally,it connects the GTAP model with the KWW trade decomposition model,and further analyses the impact on the global value chain division of labour status of China’s manufacturing industry by measuring the global value chain status index,the global value chain participation index and the domestic value-added rate of exports.The results of the study show that:(1)China and the CPTPP countries have a good foundation for international economic and trade cooperation,and the scale of trade has continued to grow steadily.China’s accession to the CPTPP will help boost the economic scale of the CPTPP,and at the same time further promote regional economic and trade development by bringing into play the comparative advantages of each country.(2)The GTAP trade liberalisation simulations under different scenarios found that the terms of trade for China’s manufacturing sector would deteriorate after China’s accession to the CPTPP,but the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers would greatly boost the scale of China’s manufacturing exports and imports.(3)In terms of trade value added,the overall forward and backward participation of China’s manufacturing industry increased after the reduction of trade barriers,but the backward participation increased more significantly,so that the GVC status index and the domestic value added rate of exports of China’s manufacturing industry as a whole decreased,while the GVC participation index of manufacturing industry increased.In terms of manufacturing industries,the backward participation of all industries increased,but the forward participation of Chinese relatively disadvantaged industries such as machinery and equipment and pharmaceutical products decreased,while the increase in the forward participation of other industries was smaller than the increase in their backward participation,so the GVC status index and export domestic value added rate of Chinese manufacturing industries at the industry level decreased,while the GVC participation index increased.Finally,taking into account the previous analysis and the development of China’s manufacturing sector,relevant suggestions are made on how China can cope with the potential impacts faced by Chinese manufacturing after joining the CPTPP.China should continue to promote reform and opening up and accelerate the alignment of relevant rules on domestic investment,trade in goods and trade in services related to the CPTPP;at the same time,it should adhere to the strategy of promoting the free trade zone;in addition,it should strengthen the joint efforts of the government and enterprises,increase investment in research and development,accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements,and promote the continuous upgrading of the global value chain status of China’s manufacturing industry.