| The Trans-Pacific Partnership is showing a trend of rapid development since the US has announced to join TPP negotiations high-sounding. Not only the content of negotiations is expanding, but the members are increasing continually. The TPP member countries have reached 12 from now on, accounting for the global GDP and the proportion of foreign trade volume of more than 1/3. Once the TPP negotiation is successful, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to become the largest free trade area. Not only causing greater impact for China’s external environment and regional cooperation strategies but it will have a great investment diversion alternatives and trade diversion effect, forming a threat for Chinese economy.This paper mainly researches on the impact of Chinese economy within TPP aggrement. We get the conclusion that the TPP has a negative impact on the trade and investment of China, weakening the position in the Asia-Pacific trade of China and hindering China’s peaceful development in the use of trade and invesrment diversion theory firstly. Secondly, I established the GTAP to asses the impact of economy and macro and sub-sectors in different scenarions within the TPP conclucing that the more TPP members, the more postive effect for members, and it negatively effect China and other non-TPP members remarkable. Chinese agriculture and food industry was affected obviously by TPP, while the impact of service sector is minimized. Finally, I put forward countermeasures for China.The second and third chapters focuse on the basic situation of TPP agreement study to lay the theoretical foundation of the paper. The second chapter focuses on the origin of TPP agreement and US intervention, introducing the motivation of the US intervention and process. The third chapter analyzes the basic content and characteristics of TPP agreement, and the similarities and differences with other multilateral trade agreements, the negotiation process and the main obstacles. The forth chapter uses qualitative analysis from tactical to analyze the economic impact of China’s foreign trade and investment wihin TPP agreement, from the strategic analysis of the long-term challenges within TPP agreement on the Chinese economy.The fifth chapter mainly uses the GTAP model to simulate the TPP agreement on China’s economy and foreign trade, making a quantitative assessment under different scenarios within TPP agreement on China’s macro economy and sub-sectors. The sixth chapter puts forward Chinese response strategy form cooperation of the international and domestic levels against TPP agreement. |
