Chinese Hog Market Prices Under The Impact Of The African Swine Fever Outbreak Fluctuation Study

Since the African swine fever epidemic first broke out in China in August 2018,it has rapidly spread to a full range of 31 provinces,and due to the high lethality and susceptibility of the African swine fever epidemic,it has dealt a heavy blow to China’s hog industry,bringing huge economic losses while,to a certain extent,affecting the direction of the future development of China’s hog industry.The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also indicated that the current situation of disease prevention and control in China is still tense,the African swine fever epidemic has colonized China,forming a wide contaminated surface,with the possibility of reoccurring outbreaks at any time,in this context the price of China’s pig market fluctuates frequently,soaring and plunging constantly alternating,pig prices also reached historical extremes,also experienced a rare history of 21 consecutive weeks of decline,the extraordinary fluctuations in pig prices became the whole society The extraordinary fluctuation of hog prices became a point of concern for the whole society.Based on the analysis of the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on China’s hog market,a multi-scale perspective-based hog price volatility analysis and policy effect testing model is established by using the integrated modal empirical decomposition algorithm(EEMD and BP structural breakpoint test)to explore the characteristics of hog price volatility under the impact of the African swine fever epidemic,to understand the mechanism of the epidemic’s impact on hog prices and to test the effect of hog market Based on this,we understand the mechanism of the impact of the epidemic on hog prices and test the effect of hog market control policies,and finally propose corresponding policy recommendations.The main findings of the study are as follows.(1)This round of widespread outbreak of African swine fever in China is characterized by its first occurrence,devastation and wide spread.Under the influence of African swine fever epidemic,pig production capacity has experienced three stages of rapid decline,rapid recovery and de-capacity;pig prices,as a direct response to supply and demand in the pig market,have also experienced three stages of short-term decline,dramatic rise and continuous decline after high level shocks;import and export of pork The import and export volume of pork also changed significantly after the epidemic,with the import volume rising significantly after the epidemic and the export volume remaining at a low level for a long time.(2)Driven by the African swine fever epidemic and environmental protection policies,the layout of the hog industry was adjusted,the market share of the industry’s leading enterprises increased significantly,the market concentration was further enhanced,and retail farmers accelerated their withdrawal from the hog market.The increase of large-scale breeding enterprises enhances the scale of pig industry and thus promotes the standardized development of breeding,which effectively increases the anti-risk ability of pig breeding.(3)After the decomposition of EEMD model,the characteristic modal function is reorganized to form three components with different economic meanings.The trend term represents the long-term direction of hog price,the low-frequency component reveals the influence of major events such as hog epidemic or market regulation policy on hog price fluctuation,and the high-frequency component represents the short-term equilibrium state of supply and demand in hog market,among which the low-frequency component is the dominant factor of hog price fluctuation.(4)The impact of African swine fever epidemic on hog price fluctuation is obvious.In the short term,the epidemic makes hog prices fall,and in the long term,the epidemic pushes hog prices up sharply.The impact of the African swine fever epidemic on the supply side of hogs started to take effect after June 2019,driving up hog prices,and the impact lasted until September 18,2020,for a total of 16 months.(5)The government will promptly introduce corresponding regulatory policies to stabilize the market in the face of the reduction in pig supply and the sharp rise(decline)in pig prices formed by the African swine fever epidemic,and a series of policies focused on supporting pig breeding are effective,with rapid recovery of pig production capacity.However,the time lag effect of hog regulation and control policies is very obvious,which is influenced by the hog breeding cycle and the lag period of decision adjustment.At the same time,China’s hog market regulation and control policies are mainly based on the rapid recovery of hog production capacity,thus suppressing the situation of price increase,and the regulation and control for price decline is mainly based on the issuance of early warning information and pork reserve storage policy,lacking the mechanism of reverse regulation in the face of excess hog production capacity.