The Influence Of Industrial Structure And Credit Structure On The Operation Performance Of Local Commercial Banks

In recent years,major changes have taken place in the international political situation and economic situation,and the persistence of Sino-US trade war makes the prospect of economic globalization unclear.The whole world was hit by the COVID-19 epidemic,international exchanges were blocked,and some industries’production and residents’ consumption suffered severe impacts;What’s more,the"black swan" and "grey rhinoceros" incidents are frequent,and the future international economic trend is even more unclear.Under this circumstance,China actively responds to external challenges,bases itself on the domestic reality,takes the road of economic internal circulation,vigorously supports the development of science and technology industry and technological innovation,adjusts,optimizes and upgrades the industrial structure through domestic substitution,breaks through the economic vein of China,opens up new paths,and strives to realize the new economic development pattern of China.The new development pattern and the new industrial structure adjustment are inseparable from the support of commercial banks’ credit funds.The investment policy and allocation efficiency of commercial banks’ credit funds have a guiding influence on the adjustment and development of industrial structure.At the same time,it is also an important part of the credit risk management of commercial banks whether the investment and allocation of credit funds of commercial banks are consistent with the adjustment direction of industrial structure.Among them,the local commercial banks’ business development strategy and credit industry investment are closely related to the adjustment of industrial structure in their region because of the limitation of their business area.In this regard,both academic circles and commercial banks have paid close attention to and studied it.From the perspective of local commercial banks,this paper analyzes the mutual influence between commercial banks’ operating performance,credit structure and industrial structure,sorts out the related literature on the impact of credit structure and industrial structure adjustment on commercial banks’ operating performance,and understands the current research status.It expounds the industrial structure theory,information asymmetry theory,modern portfolio theory,regional finance theory,behavioral finance theory and SCP theory as the theoretical basis for the research.Secondly,based on the macroeconomic data of 283 prefecture-level cities in 2015-2020,the financial data of city commercial banks,rural commercial banks,agricultural cooperative banks,rural credit cooperatives and three new types of rural financial institutions,and the publicly disclosed operating information,this paper analyzes the influence logic of industrial structure,credit structure and local commercial banks’ operating performance,establishes a panel regression model and verifies it.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of industrial structure,the adjustment of industrial structure is beneficial to the improvement of local commercial banks’ operating performance.The higher the proportion of the output value of secondary and tertiary industries to the total output value,the more perfect the local industrial structure is,the more obvious the positive correlation to the operating performance of local commercial banks is.(2)From the perspective of credit structure,the higher the proportion of loans from the single largest customer and the largest ten customers in the credit structure,the higher the risk concentration,and the more obvious the negative impact on the operating performance of local commercial banks;(3)The credit structure plays a partial intermediary role between the industrial structure and the operating performance of local commercial banks.The optimization and adjustment of industrial structure will help potential industries give full play to their agglomeration advantages,help the development of enterprises in advantageous industries,reduce the customer limitations of local commercial banks,and avoid high concentration of risks,thus improving the operating performance of local commercial banks.According to the research results,this paper puts forward from the perspective of local commercial banks that in order to improve the operating performance’besides perfecting the corporate governance mechanism of banks,it is also necessary to optimize and adjust the credit structure,adapt to the changes of industrial institutions and strengthen risk control.From the perspective of the government,it is necessary to play a positive role in prudent supervision and actively promoting the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure.