Research On Risk Assessment And Resolution Of Municipal Bonds In Guizhou Provinc

With the accelerating process of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way,Guizhou’s economic development has reached a new level,and its GDP growth rate ranks among the top in China.While the investment in infrastructure construction is constantly expanding,the scale and risks of urban investment bonds are also gradually expanding.From 2018 to 2021,a total of 89 non-standard defaults occurred in Guizhou financing platform companies.Therefore,resolving the risk of Guizhou provincial city investment bond has become an urgent problem to be solved.Effectively evaluating and resolving the risk of Guizhou provincial city investment bond is of great significance to realize the high-quality development of Guizhou.Based on the data of Wind database,Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Finance and Bureau of Statistics,this paper takes urban investment bonds issued by Guizhou Province from 2013 to 2022 as the research object.First of all,combined with the local economic development of Guizhou Province,explore the development process and formation of urban investment bonds in Guizhou Province.It is found that the four main reasons for the formation of Guizhou City investment bond are weak regional economic foundation,large capital demand,high cost of infrastructure construction,weak regional financial strength and policy support.The development of Guizhou urban investment bond is divided into initial stage,high growth stage and inhibition and resolution stage.Secondly,the scale risk of Guizhou urban investment bonds is evaluated by analyzing the issuance scale,stock scale,maturity scale and net financing scale of urban investment bonds.It is found that by the end of December 2022,Guizhou Province’s urban investment bond stock scale reached 266.807 billion yuan;The cumulative issuance scale of urban investment bonds from 2013 to 2022 was 572.265 billion yuan;The total maturity scale of urban investment bonds from 2023 to 2025 is 184.326 billion yuan,and the net financing amount in 2022 is-5.671 billion yuan.Both the debt ratio and debt ratio indicators are higher than the standard value,indicating that the scale risk of Guizhou provincial urban investment bonds is relatively large.By analyzing the hierarchical structure,maturity structure and flow structure of urban investment bonds,the structural risks of urban investment bonds in Guizhou Province are evaluated.Urban investment bonds are mainly issued in the medium and long term;The types of urban investment bonds are mainly private debt and enterprise debt.Urban investment bonds are mostly used to repay old and new loans.Finally,the credit risk is evaluated by the credit rating of urban investment bonds and KMV model.Guizhou provincial investment bonds issued mainly AA credit rating,credit level is low;Based on the grey model,the GDP of Guizhou Province in the next three years is predicted,and the general public budget revenue is measured by regression analysis,so as to measure the debt repayment income.The revised KMV model is used to evaluate the credit risk of Guizhou provincial urban investment bonds.It is found that the guarantee ratio of 40%,40% and 50% of Guizhou provincial urban investment bonds should be maintained from 2023 to 2025,without considering the callback option of urban investment bonds.In order to keep the default probability of urban investment bonds at a reasonable level.When considering the callback option,the guarantee ratio of 50%,60% and 50% should be maintained respectively from 2023 to 2025,so as to keep the default probability of urban bonds at a reasonable level.Finally,combined with the actual economic and social development of Guizhou province,this paper puts forward the measures to resolve the risks of Guizhou urban investment bonds from four aspects: establishing the management system of urban investment bonds limit,perfecting the risk prevention and debt conversion mechanism,promoting the market-oriented transformation of urban investment companies and establishing diversified capital investment mechanism.